French architecture in France

France GDP Q4 2022

France: Economy grows at softest pace since Q1 2022 in Q4 2022

According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth edged down to 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the final quarter of last year, from 0.2% in the third quarter. Q4’s reading marked the worst result since Q1 2022.

The downturn was driven by weakening private consumption and exports, compounded by softer fixed investment growth. Household spending contracted 0.9% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q1 2022 (Q3: +0.5% s.a. qoq), while fixed investment growth softened to 0.8% in Q4, from 2.3% logged in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, government spending was stable at a 0.2% expansion in Q4 (Q3: +0.2% s.a. qoq).

On the external front, exports contracted 0.3% in Q4, marking the worst reading since Q1 2021 (Q3: +0.8% s.a. qoq). In addition, imports deteriorated, contracting 1.9% in Q4 (Q3: +3.9% s.a. qoq), marking the worst performance in over two years.

On an annual basis, economic growth waned to 0.5% in Q4, compared to the previous quarter’s 1.0% increase. Q4’s reading marked the slowest growth since Q4 2020.

Commenting on the print, Tullia Bucco, economist at UniCredit Bank, noted that:

“Today’s reading brings encouraging news as it confirms the economy’s resilience against the headwinds weighing on the outlook. Looking ahead, while weakness in economic activity remained largely widespread, the latest PMI data for January indicated that the economy continued to hold up at the beginning of the year, with businesses viewing the current soft patch as short-lived and expecting demand conditions to recover.”

On the outlook, Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at ING, highlighted that:

“Looking ahead, the data suggest that the French economic outlook remains uncertain, but far from dramatic. It doesn’t seem on the verge of recession. Nevertheless, escaping the recession does not mean rebounding strongly. […] To see a significant improvement in the outlook for the French economy in 2023, the fall in the price of gas on international markets and the reopening of China will not be enough. There needs to be a clear improvement in household and business confidence. Without this, stagnation remains the most likely scenario for 2023.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest