Ecuador Economic Activity September 2022

Ecuador

Ecuador: Economic activity growth loses pace in September

November 17, 2022

Economic activity expanded 4.9% compared to the same month a year earlier in September, which followed August's 7.2% increase. The moderation came due to weaker oil production over the month, compounded by a tougher base of comparison.

Meanwhile, annual average economic activity growth fell to 9.7% in September (August: +10.6%), which marked an over one-year low.

Commenting on the outlook, analysts at the EIU stated:

“We expect the economy to finally return to its pre-pandemic size in 2023, but the pace of growth will decelerate. Although there will be tailwinds from high global oil prices, other developments will be less helpful. For example, higher consumer price inflation and rising interest rates (largely imported from the U.S.) will hit real incomes and prompt businesses to halt investment plans. […] Given these trends, we expect GDP growth to slow to 1.2% in 2023, from an estimated 2.4% in 2022.”

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to grow 2.5% in 2023, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2024, the panel sees GDP expanding 2.2%.


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Ecuador Economic Activity September 2022

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity index in %.
Source: Ecuador Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.


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