China Retail June 2021


China: Annual retail sales growth eases to six-month low in June, but underlying momentum is solid

July 15, 2021

Retail sales expanded 12.1% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a deterioration from May's 12.4% increase. June's result marked the worst reading since December 2020, although this was largely due to the base effect.

On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, which was below May’s 0.8% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend improved sizably, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at plus 13.4% in June, up from May's 12.2% reading.

June’s data shows consumer spending was resilient at the end of Q2, notwithstanding the flare-up of Covid-19 cases in Guangdong province. While year-on-year retail sales growth will moderate in H2, underlying consumer spending momentum (stripping out base effects) should be healthy as the labor market improves and the vaccine rollout accelerates.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 14.7% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 7.8%.


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China Retail Chart

China Retail June 2021

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted nominal retail sales index and year-on-year variation in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures for January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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