Bulgaria: Economic growth picks up in the first quarter of 2026
GDP reading: Bulgaria’s GDP grew 3.1% on a working-day and seasonally adjusted year-on-year basis in Q1, following 2.9% growth in the previous quarter. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP expanded 0.7% in Q1, following 0.8% growth in the prior quarter.
Drivers: Compared with the previous quarter’s data, the reading for private consumption improved in Q1 (+9.4% in seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms vs +9.0% in Q4). In contrast, readings worsened for government consumption (+3.2% vs +7.1% in Q4), fixed investment (+9.1% vs +12.1% in Q4), exports of goods and services (-7.4% vs -0.7% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+8.2% vs +11.1% in Q4).
Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on the outlook:
“Bulgaria recorded one of the strongest growth rates in the EU in the first quarter, and the economy is expected to remain among the bloc’s top performers in 2026-30, supported by solid real wage gains and rising investment. […] Private consumption is expected to remain the main driver of growth, underpinned by continued real wage gains and strong credit expansion. We also expect the new government to accelerate reforms aimed at unlocking additional EU funding.”