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Brazil Inflation April 2024

Brazil: Inflation falls to lowest level since June 2023 in April

Inflation dropped to 3.7% in April from March’s 3.9%. April’s result represented the weakest inflation rate since June 2023 but marginally overshot market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, prices for transportation grew at a more moderate pace in April. Additionally, prices for housing and utilities also increased at a milder rate. Meanwhile, prices for food and beverages rose at a steady pace compared to the previous month’s reading.

Meanwhile, the trend was unchanged, with annual average inflation coming in at March’s 4.3% in April. Meanwhile, core inflation cooled to 3.8% in April, down from March’s 4.3%. April’s print was the lowest in three years.

Finally, consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 0.38% over the previous month in April, after the 0.16% increase logged in March.

Looking ahead, the disinflation process is now likely to stall and inflation will hover around current levels for the rest of the year. Our panelists expect average inflation to remain within the Central Bank of Brazil’s 1.5%–4.5% tolerance band through the end of our forecast horizon in 2028. That said, it will remain above the mid-point of the band. The ongoing easing of monetary policy will sustain price pressures ahead.

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