Belarus GDP Q2 2021


Belarus: Economy records quickest upturn since Q2 2018 in Q2

July 16, 2021

According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth improved to 5.5% year-on-year in the second quarter (H1 2021: 3.3% yoy), from 1.1% in the first quarter. Q2's reading marked the strongest growth since Q2 2018.

Cumulative data for H1 shows a stronger manufacturing sub-sector compared to Q1, while the fall in construction activity ebbed. In addition, services sub-sectors such as wholesale and retail, transportation and information and communication all accelerated. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector remained in contractionary territory.

Going forward, several headwinds have emerged moving into Q3, as the most recent rate hike by the Central Bank could dent domestic activity due to tighter access to credit. Meanwhile, the external sector faces a double threat from the fresh sanctions imposed by the EU from late June and the deteriorating health situation in key trading partner Russia, which could lead to tighter restrictions that would pose a downside risks to external demand.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 1.6% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, panelists see GDP growth at 2.0%.

Author:, Junior Economist

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Belarus GDP Chart

Belarus GDP Q2  2021 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BELSTAT).

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