Argentina: Economic activity loses steam in November
January 25, 2018
In November, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) lost steam. Growth in economic activity moderated from October’s revised 4.9% increase (previously reported: +5.2% year-on-year) to a 3.9% expansion in November. November’s print marked the ninth consecutive month of growth.
November’s reading reflected a slowdown in almost all components of the index. Year-on-year growth in construction activity decelerated from 18.4% in October to 16.6% in November. Financial intermediation expanded 7.8%, coming in slightly below October’s 8.2% rise. Farming, cattle raising, hunting and forestry expanded a soft 1.3% in November, a notable slowdown from 5.1% in October.
A seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity inched up from a 0.3% increase in October to 0.4% growth in November. Lastly, economic activity in the 12 months up to November jumped to 2.6% on average, up from 2.2% in the 12 months up to October.
Argentina GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth of 2.7% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see the economy expanding 2.9%.