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Argentina Economic Activity November 2023

Argentina: Economic activity dips in November

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) declined 0.9% year on year in November (October: +1.0% yoy). November’s notable downturn largely reflected a deterioration in the manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the agricultural sector grew. Lastly, activity in the hotels and restaurants sector gained pace, while transport and communications output rose.

On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.4% in November (October: 0.0% mom), the worst result since April. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at an over two-year low of minus 1.2%, down from October’s minus 1.0%.

Commenting on the economic outlook, Andrés Pérez and Diego Ciongo, analysts at Itaú Unibanco, stated:

“We expect a GDP contraction of 2.5% for 2024, after an expected 1.5% contraction in 2023. In our view, the expected acceleration of inflation after the sharp currency devaluation will hit real wages (in particular in 1Q24), while an ambitious stabilization program should support fiscal consolidation efforts yet affect short-term activity dynamics. On the other hand, the normalization of the agriculture sector after a severe drought in 2023 and the positive effects of the announced deregulation of the economy could boost activity over time.”

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