Angola Commodities January 2023

Angola: Cabinda prices increase in January

The average price for Cabinda oil ticked up to USD 81.2 per barrel (pb) in January, up from December’s USD 80.0 pb. This marked a 1.4% increase month on month. Meanwhile, prices were down 7.2% year on year.

Oil prices regained some ground at the outset of the year due to a stronger demand outlook, stemming from China’s reopening and economic resilience in the U.S. and the EU.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output rose to 1.13 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January, up from December’s 1.11 mbpd. Production among other OPEC+ members trended down in general. Output decreased in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, remained stable in the UAE, and increased in Kuwait.

Global oil prices are forecast to pick up this year but are still seen below the levels recorded at the start of the war in Ukraine. The reopening of the Chinese economy will support demand ahead and will likely offset the negative impact of global headwinds on crude demand. Additionally, OPEC+ quotas and sanctions on Russian oil will exert upward pressure on prices. Key factors to watch are the state of the global economy, the evolution of OPEC+ cuts and sanctions on Russia, and the output levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists project Angolan oil production to remain close to last year’s levels, below its historical average.

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