Angola Commodities November 2022

Angola: Cabinda prices decrease in November

The average price for Cabinda oil fell to USD 92.6 per barrel (pb) in November, down from Octobers USD 95.0 pb. This marked a 2.5% decrease month on month. Meanwhile, prices were up 13.4% year on year.

Oil prices declined slightly during the previous month amid deteriorating demand prospects. Newly established lockdowns in key-customer China in late October and November likely took a toll on the Asian powerhouses oil appetite. Moreover, weak industrial activity among most advanced economies should have exerted further downward pressure.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output dropped to 1.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November. Production among other OPEC+ members trended down in general. Output declined in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, while it remained stable in Saudi Arabia and increased in Venezuela.

Global oil prices are seen rebounding somewhat in 2023 but remaining below the highs seen at the outset of the war in Ukraine. OPEC+ quotas and EU sanctions on Russian oil will constrain supply and thus push prices up. That said, global economic headwinds will curb demand somewhat. Key factors to watch include the evolution of OPEC+ cuts, sanctions on Russia and output levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production in 2023 close to 2022 levels but below its historical average. Low output will hinder the nation from fully reaping the rewards of still-high oil prices.

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