Exchange Rate in Japan
Japan - Exchange Rate
Trump’s victory and Fed’s hike prompt sharp depreciation of yen
The Japanese yen (JPY) has been depreciating sharply against the U.S. dollar since Donald Trump’s victory in the 8 November presidential election and, in particular, following the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate at the 13–14 December meeting. On 15 December, the JPY marked the weakest reading since February this year; it traded at JPY 118.2 per USD. This was 8.2% weaker than the level observed on the same day in November. That said, on an annual basis, the Japanese yen still gained 2.9% against the greenback.
The sharp weakening of the yen mostly reflects expectations that Trump’s policies will boost growth in the world’s largest economy via stronger fiscal stimulus and that the Federal Reserve will have to hike rates, thereby widening U.S.–Japanese interest rate differentials. This situation contrasts with the dynamics observed earlier this year, where rising risk aversion due to an uncertain global outlook had led the yen to strengthen to a nearly three-year high.
If sustained, the depreciation of the yen could cause a rebound in exports, translating into an improvement in businesses’ earnings, higher inflation, and stronger investment and manufacturing activity. Nevertheless, Trump’s unclear policy plans will cast a long shadow on the yen’s performance in the coming months.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the yen to trade at 117.7 per USD by the end of 2017. For 2018, the panel projects that the yen will weaken to 119.4 per USD.
Japan - Exchange Rate Data
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||76.96||86.75||105.3||119.7||120.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Japan Exchange Rate Chart
Source: Thomson Reuters
|Bond Yield||0.07||-12.00 %||Jan 20|
|Exchange Rate||114.6||-0.21 %||Jan 20|
|Stock Market||19,138||0.34 %||Jan 20|
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January 16, 2017
Core machinery orders (a leading indicator of capital spending over a three- to six-month period) in Japan fell in November after briefly recovering in the previous month.
January 10, 2017
Japanese consumer sentiment rose from November’s 40.9 to 43.1 in December, which marked the highest print since September 2013.
December 28, 2016
Industrial production in Japan expanded 1.5% in November compared to the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, above October’s revised 0.0% reading (previously reported: +0.1% month-on-month).
December 27, 2016
The core consumer price index was entirely flat in November compared to the previous month, below October’s 0.2% rise.
December 19, 2016
In November, nominal Japanese exports valued in yen fell 0.4% from the same month last year, which followed October’s 10.3% decline.