Ukraine Economic Data & Projections

Ukraine Economic Outlook

War-torn economy:

Ukraine, a country with vast agricultural and industrial potential, has been significantly impacted by Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Before the war, Ukraine was growing as a key European economy, with a GDP of over $200 billion. However, the war has devastated infrastructure, displaced millions, and drastically reduced economic output. In 2022, GDP contracted by over 30%, with some recovery seen in 2023 as international aid and wartime production supported economic activity. The war has led to severe fiscal strain, with a budget deficit exceeding 20% of GDP, largely financed by Western aid.

Agricultural powerhouse:

Ukraine has long been known as the "breadbasket of Europe" due to its fertile black soil and vast agricultural sector. It is a top global exporter of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil. However, the war has disrupted farming, with mined fields, labor shortages, and damaged infrastructure complicating exports. The Black Sea grain deal—negotiated with Russia and Turkey to allow food exports—was repeatedly threatened and eventually collapsed in 2023, forcing Ukraine to rely more on land and river transport to ship agricultural goods. Despite the challenges, agriculture remains a crucial part of Ukraine’s economy, accounting for roughly 10% of GDP and 40% of exports.

Industrial base and reconstruction needs:

Ukraine historically had a significant industrial sector, including steel production, machinery, and energy. However, many factories and energy facilities have been destroyed or are operating below capacity due to the war. The country also has vast untapped mineral reserves, including lithium and rare earth metals, which could play a key role in the future economy. Looking ahead, Ukraine’s reconstruction needs are estimated at over $400 billion, offering a massive opportunity for investment in infrastructure, housing, and energy. International financial institutions and Western governments have pledged support, but long-term economic stabilization depends on security and governance reforms.

Ukraine’s economic outlook:

The Ukrainian economy will remain highly dependent on foreign aid and the course of the war in the near term. If Ukraine can secure a lasting peace and attract investment, growth prospects are strong due to its agricultural potential, educated workforce, and proximity to European markets. EU accession talks, which began in 2023, provide an incentive for economic and governance reforms, though the process will take years. The main risks to the outlook include continued military conflict, corruption, and weak institutional capacity. In the long run, a rebuilt Ukraine could emerge as an attractive investment destination, but only if security and economic reforms are successfully implemented.

Ukraine's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 191 billion in 2024.

Nominal GDP of USD 191 billion in 2024.

Nominal GDP of USD 178 billion in 2023.

GDP per capita of USD 4,720 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 5,033 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 5,033 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 2.3% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 2.3% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 2.6% over the last decade.

Sector Analysis

In 2022, services accounted for 61.3% of overall GDP, manufacturing 8.2%, other industrial activity 23.1%, and agriculture 7.4%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 64.1% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 41.7%, fixed investment 15.1%, and net exports -20.9%.

International trade

In 2023, manufactured products made up 30.1% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 1.1%, food 60.3%, ores and metals 6.0% and agricultural raw materials 2.2%, with other categories accounting for 0.3% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 63.2% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 16.3%, food 10.6%, ores and metals 1.2% and agricultural raw materials 0.9%, with other goods accounting for 7.8% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 38.90 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 69.30 billion.