Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

Following Q2’s near 10-year high GDP growth rate, activity should have remained robust in the third quarter, but likely slowed on a fading base effect. Both industrial output and retail sales expanded at healthy—albeit more modest—paces in July–September. Meanwhile, less upbeat consumer confidence through Q3, coupled with rising price pressures in the period, likely capped private spending. In other news, on 18 October the government announced that it had reached a deal with the IMF that could secure an extension to its USD 5 billion loan program through to next June, and enable a disbursement of USD 700 million to the country. Lastly, on 25 October, the EU disbursed EUR 600 million as the second and final tranche of funds aimed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, after Ukraine complied with all eight policy commitments required by the Covid-19 financial assistance program.

Ukraine Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to accelerate slightly in 2022 from this year’s projected rebound. A steady vaccine rollout should boost capital spending, while incoming funds from the IMF and the EU should further bolster activity. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia and Belarus, as well as potential losses due to the Nord Stream pipeline, dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP increasing 3.3%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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