Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

The Russian invasion has now dragged on past the 10-week mark, and, despite ongoing peace talks, there is no end in sight. Although funding from the U.S., the EU and the international community has continued to pour in, the economic losses stemming from the destruction of infrastructure, the loss of territory and the loss of human lives have continued to mount. The number of Ukrainians that have fled their homes has now reached an estimated 12 million people. Currently, the southern port city Kherson is now fully under Russian control, as is much of Mariupol despite ongoing resistance at the Azovstal steel plant. Despite partially succeeding in cutting off Ukraine’s access to the sea, Russia’s strategic shift towards the Donbas region has seen a loss of momentum amid fierce resistance from Ukrainian armed forces and widespread floundering by the Russian army.

Ukraine Economic Growth

The precise economic fallout of the war remains unseen given the fast-moving nature of the conflict and its unpredictability. Nevertheless, our panelists have penciled in massive downgrades to GDP growth—with some projecting an up to 55% contraction. The key variable going forward will be the extent of Russia’s plans in the ever-evolving military landscape. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 36.5% in 2022, which is down 7.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP expanding 12.9%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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