Ukraine Economic Outlook
November 2, 2021Following Q2’s near 10-year high GDP growth rate, activity should have remained robust in the third quarter, but likely slowed on a fading base effect. Both industrial output and retail sales expanded at healthy—albeit more modest—paces in July–September. Meanwhile, less upbeat consumer confidence through Q3, coupled with rising price pressures in the period, likely capped private spending. In other news, on 18 October the government announced that it had reached a deal with the IMF that could secure an extension to its USD 5 billion loan program through to next June, and enable a disbursement of USD 700 million to the country. Lastly, on 25 October, the EU disbursed EUR 600 million as the second and final tranche of funds aimed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, after Ukraine complied with all eight policy commitments required by the Covid-19 financial assistance program.
Ukraine Economic GrowthGDP growth is expected to accelerate slightly in 2022 from this year’s projected rebound. A steady vaccine rollout should boost capital spending, while incoming funds from the IMF and the EU should further bolster activity. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia and Belarus, as well as potential losses due to the Nord Stream pipeline, dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP increasing 3.3%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
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Ukraine Economic News
November 9, 2021
Consumer prices dropped 0.09% over the previous month in October, contrasting the 0.73% increase recorded in September.
October 22, 2021
Industrial output grew 1.4% year-on-year in September (August: +1.7% yoy).
October 9, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.73% over the previous month in September, picking up from August's flat reading.
September 22, 2021
Industrial output grew 0.6% year-on-year in August (July: +0.2% yoy).
September 21, 2021
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy bounced back in the second quarter, expanding 5.4% year-on-year and contrasting the 2.2% contraction logged in the first quarter.