Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

May 3, 2022

After hitting the highest level in the Euro area in Q4, economic growth is likely to have slowed in Q1. This will be in large part due to higher energy prices, which will have dented both household consumption and the external balance. Government measures were likely insufficient to fully soften the blow to activity. Heading into Q2, with energy prices remaining elevated, growth is set to stay subdued. In politics, center-left candidate Robert Golob’s party won 41 of the 90 seats in parliament in late April, paving the way for a left-leaning coalition government. The margin of victory was greater than expected by most analysts and will likely boost political stability, boding well for investment ahead. Golob has pledged to safeguard the rule of law and media freedom, signaling improved ties with the EU following the rocky relationship seen under the current prime minister’s leadership.

Slovenia Economic Growth

GDP growth should soften this year on a tougher base effect. Nonetheless, it will remain above its pre-pandemic average thanks to the removal of Covid-19 restrictions, which will invigorate private spending, and easing supply constraints, which should aid the external sector. A volatile global energy market poses a strong downside risk. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 4.2% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen growing 2.9%.

Slovenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,83219,55920,80822,12323,204
GDP (EUR bn)38.940.443.045.848.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.14.84.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.14.52.02.82.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.2-3.710.49.13.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.66.67.75.13.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.14.47.44.63.4
Unemployment Rate9.08.06.65.14.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-1.90.00.70.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)82.678.774.170.466.1
Money (annual variation in %)5.07.76.67.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.51.81.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.21.61.91.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.42.22.10.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.84.86.36.16.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.92.72.83.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.51.51.61.31.3
Exports (EUR billion)24.025.028.430.832.0
Imports (EUR billion)22.623.526.829.530.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.74.013.58.63.8
Imports (annual variation in %)3.64.014.110.43.8

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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