Estonia Economic Outlook
May 31, 2022Q1 GDP likely grew at a healthy annual pace. However, the expansion will have been slower than in Q4, and the economy likely registered a contraction in quarter-on-quarter terms. Looking at available indicators, industrial activity in January–March grew at a softer year-on-year pace than in Q4. Meanwhile, retail sales growth also eased amid the red-hot inflation rate and the Omicron wave, although a tight labor market, government aid and pent-up savings likely sheltered spending somewhat. In Q2, industrial activity is likely suffering from global commodity market shocks: Producer prices in April were at a 27-year high. That said, entry requirements for international travelers were eased on 1 April, which should be supporting tourism. In May, Estonia adopted a nearly EUR 900 million supplementary budget for defense spending, energy security and refugee aid, which should boost domestic demand.
Estonia Economic GrowthIn 2022, economic growth is set to slow notably from last year’s rally, owing to inflation stifling private spending and the fallout from the Ukraine war hampering trade and industrial activity. Still, incoming EU funds, a robust labor market and major growth in military spending will support growth. Energy insecurity and slowdowns among trading partners cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 2.3% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2023.
Estonia Economy Data
5 years of Estonia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Estonia Economic News
November 7, 2022
Harmonized inflation came in at 22.5% in October, which was down from September’s 24.1%.
November 1, 2022
Industrial output sank 7.5% year-on-year in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in September, which contrasted August's 0.7% increase.
October 7, 2022
Harmonized inflation came in at 24.1% in September, down from August’s 25.2%.
October 3, 2022
Industrial production grew 0.8% year on year in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in August (July: -6.5% ).
September 7, 2022
Harmonized inflation came in at 25.2% in August, which was up from July’s 23.2%.