Colombia

Colombia Economic Outlook

January 20, 2015

Colombia’s economy slowed further in Q3, moderating from Q2’s 4.3% annual expansion to a slightly-weaker, but still solid, 4.2%. While slower private consumption and public spending were behind the deceleration, the external sector did improve. More recent indicators paint a mixed picture: consumer confidence remained solid in December. However, in November, industrial production shrank and falling oil exports prompted the steepest decline in exports in over five years. The drop in global oil prices, which will likely weaken the energy sector and drive down public revenues, prompted the government to revise down its growth and fiscal targets for 2015. In an effort to contain the deficit, the government enacted a tax reform recently that extends and modifies existing wealth and profits taxes and also extends a charge on banking transactions. Meanwhile, the Colombian peso plunged to a five-year low in January on the falling oil price. Oil exports are the country’s key export and its most important source of foreign exchange.

Colombia Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)45.045.546.046.647.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,2096,3097,2857,9498,028
GDP (USD bn)234.3287.1335.4370.3378.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.74.06.64.04.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.25.68.64.64.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.65.15.54.74.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.34.919.04.66.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.64.35.0-0.2-1.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.18.07.84.14.7
Unemployment Rate12.011.810.810.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.7-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.834.433.231.734.9
Money (annual variation in %)5.410.218.916.514.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.03.23.72.41.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.22.33.43.22.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.24.45.5-3.0-0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.004.754.253.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)53.533.6-18.316.2-11.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,0431,9201,9391,7671,930
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,1541,8981,8481,7971,869
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.82.71.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)32.839.756.960.158.8
Imports (USD billion)32.940.554.259.159.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.720.943.35.6-2.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.123.134.09.00.5
International Reserves (USD)25.428.532.337.543.6
External Debt (% of GDP)22.922.522.521.324.3

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5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.52-1.21 %Jan 23
Exchange Rate2,3850.52 %Jan 23
Stock Market10,7940.78 %Jan 23

Colombia Economic Growth

January 20, 2015

Colombia’s economic prospects continued to weaken on expectations of falling oil revenues. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to grow 3.9% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel sees economic growth of 4.1%.

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