Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

February 17, 2015

Colombia’s economy is expected to have grown at the fastest pace in three years in 2014. Nevertheless, economic growth did moderate throughout 2014 after starting the year on a very high note. More recent data suggest that growth momentum continued to cool down at the outset of 2015, reflecting the adverse impact of the weakening crude price on the oil-driven-economy. Exports and industrial production both contracted in November and consumer confidence moderated in January. In the political arena, President Juan Manuel Santos announced that his administration and the FARC guerillas will initiate formal negotiations for a bilateral ceasefire aimed at putting an end to five decades of conflict. The government and the FARC have been in peace talks for over two years and have reached an agreement on three of the items in the five-point agenda so far.

Colombia Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)45.045.546.046.647.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,2096,3097,2857,9498,028
GDP (USD bn)234.3287.1335.4370.3378.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.74.06.64.04.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.25.68.64.64.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.65.15.54.74.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.34.919.04.66.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.64.35.0-0.2-1.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.18.07.84.14.7
Unemployment Rate12.011.810.810.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.7-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.834.433.231.734.9
Money (annual variation in %)5.410.218.916.514.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.03.23.72.41.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.22.33.43.22.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.24.45.5-3.0-0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.004.754.253.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)53.533.6-18.316.2-11.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,0431,9201,9391,7671,930
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,1541,8981,8481,7971,869
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.82.71.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)32.839.756.960.158.8
Imports (USD billion)32.940.554.259.159.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.720.943.35.6-2.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.123.134.09.00.5
International Reserves (USD)25.428.532.337.543.6
External Debt (% of GDP)22.922.522.521.324.3

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5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.550.69 %Feb 26
Exchange Rate2,4920.26 %Feb 26
Stock Market10,435-0.13 %Feb 26

Colombia Economic Growth

February 17, 2015

The low global oil price continues to weaken Colombia’s growth prospects. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to grow 3.6% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel also projects economic growth of 3.6%.

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