Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

April 11, 2017

While Q1 figures suggest growth does not yet seem to have recovered from a disappointing 2016, 2017 overall is widely expected to be kinder to Colombia’s economy and fiscal accounts. Higher oil prices, an ambitious public infrastructure program and loose monetary policy will allow growth to pick up this year. Similarly, the government should be able to meet its fiscal target for 2017 largely due to the tax reform passed in December and also to stronger economic activity. In fact, in a nod to Colombia’s fiscal consolidation efforts, ratings agency Fitch revised up Colombia’s sovereign rating outlook on 10 March. The political situation is also bound to improve following the signing of the historic peace deal last year, which could potentially bolster tourism and investment in the conflict-ridden areas of the country.

Colombia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)46.647.147.748.2-  
GDP per capita (USD)7,9328,0607,9296,030-  
GDP (USD bn)369380378291-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.04.94.43.1-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.75.06.22.9-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.84.64.43.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.76.89.81.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.2-1.81.30.9-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.14.78.06.2-  
Unemployment Rate10.49.69.18.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.734.937.741.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)16.514.79.112.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.93.76.8-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.02.95.0-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.9-0.16.05.5-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.253.254.505.75-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)16.2-11.2-11.0-26.5-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,7671,9302,3893,175-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,7971,8692,0032,749-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-3.3-5.2-6.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-11.2-12.4-19.6-18.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)4.02.2-6.3-15.9-  
Exports (USD billion)60.158.854.835.7-  
Imports (USD billion)56.156.661.151.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)5.6-2.2-6.8-34.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)8.80.97.9-15.5-  
International Reserves (USD)37.543.647.346.7-  
External Debt (% of GDP)21.324.226.838.0-  

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.600.66 %Apr 06
Exchange Rate2,856-0.15 %Apr 06
Stock Market10,185-0.09 %Apr 06

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Colombia Economic Growth

April 11, 2017

GDP growth will experience a modest acceleration in 2017 on the back of accommodative monetary policy and higher commodity prices. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.3% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel projects economic growth of 3.0%.

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