Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

April 21, 2015

Colombia expanded a respectable 4.6% in 2014. The economy was sustained by solid consumption and investment which more than compensated for plummeting exports. The oil-driven economy started off 2014 on a very high note, but growth moderated steadily throughout the year due to the adverse oil shock. The economy continued losing momentum at the outset of 2015: exports recorded another steep contraction and industrial production shrank again in February. Consumer confidence tumbled to an over five-year low in March. In the political arena, the recent clash between FARC guerillas and the military, along with the FARC’s violation of the ceasefire that was declared in December, prompted the government to end the suspension of its bombing campaign against the FARC. These recent developments represent a setback in the progress that had been achieved toward a peace deal.

Colombia Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)45.045.546.046.647.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,2096,3097,2857,9358,063
GDP (USD bn)234.3287.1335.4369.6379.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.74.06.64.04.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.25.68.64.75.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.65.15.54.84.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.34.919.04.76.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.64.35.0-0.2-1.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.18.07.84.14.7
Unemployment Rate12.011.810.810.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.7-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.834.433.231.734.9
Money (annual variation in %)5.410.218.916.514.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.03.23.72.41.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.22.33.43.22.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.25.88.7-4.9-0.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.004.754.253.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)53.533.6-18.316.2-11.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,0431,9201,9391,7671,930
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,1541,8981,8481,7971,869
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.6-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.82.71.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)32.839.756.960.158.8
Imports (USD billion)32.940.554.259.159.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.720.943.35.6-2.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.123.134.09.00.5
International Reserves (USD)25.428.532.337.543.6
External Debt (% of GDP)22.922.522.521.324.2

Sample Report

5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.74-0.46 %Apr 23
Exchange Rate2,468-0.94 %Apr 23
Stock Market10,4590.96 %Apr 23

Colombia Economic Growth

April 21, 2015

Colombia’s growth prospects continue to weaken, as the low oil price will likely lead to subdued investment and a further deterioration in exports, as well as calls for fiscal adjustment. LatinFocus panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel also projects economic growth of 3.4%.

Sample Report

See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.

Download

Colombia Economic News

Search form