Colombia

Colombia Economic Outlook

December 9, 2014

Colombia’s economy cooled down in the second quarter, decelerating from Q1’s buoyant 6.5% expansion to a more moderate but still robust 4.3%. The slowdown was largely driven by shrinking net exports, and also by slower consumption and investment growth. Recent developments point to a further moderation in economic growth. The drop in the oil price and the resulting decline in government revenues are putting public finances under pressure. In order to plug the funding gap expected for next year, the government proposed a tax reform that introduces a tax on corporate profits and extends both an expiring wealth tax and a tax on financial transactions. Meanwhile, the Colombian peso dropped to the lowest level in more than five years, which, on a positive note, will help boost exports in the manufacturing and agricultural sector.

Colombia Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)45.045.546.146.647.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,2096,3087,2847,9468,023
GDP (USD bn)234.3287.1335.4370.3378.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.74.06.64.14.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.25.68.64.64.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.65.15.54.74.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.34.919.04.66.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.64.35.0-0.2-1.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.18.17.84.14.7
Unemployment Rate12.011.810.810.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.834.433.231.734.9
Money (annual variation in %)5.410.218.916.514.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.03.23.72.41.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.22.33.43.22.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.24.45.5-3.0-0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.004.754.253.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)53.533.6-18.316.2-11.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,0431,9201,9391,7671,930
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,1541,8981,8481,7971,869
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.9-8.7-9.7-11.6-12.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.82.71.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)32.939.756.960.158.8
Imports (USD billion)32.940.554.259.159.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.720.943.35.6-2.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.123.134.09.00.5
International Reserves (USD)25.428.532.337.543.6
External Debt (% of GDP)22.922.522.521.324.3

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5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.72.54 %Dec 04
Exchange Rate2,279-0.43 %Dec 04
Stock Market11,625-2.73 %Dec 04

Colombia Economic Growth

December 9, 2014

Colombia’s economic prospects weakened slightly amid the declining oil revenues. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to grow 4.9% in 2014. For 2015, the panel sees economic growth of 4.3%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection.

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