Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

March 17, 2015

While Colombia is expected to have recorded strong economic growth last year, the low crude price took its toll on the oil-driven economy and contributed to slowing growth over the course of 2014. Colombia has continued to lose steam since the beginning of this year. Exports recorded an unprecedented contraction in January and the peso depreciated to yet another multi-year low in March. The drop in oil revenues prompted the government to cut the 2015 budget by 3% in February; cutbacks will mainly affect infrastructure and administrative spending. On the political front, the government and the FARC guerillas are making progress toward a peace deal; both parties reached an agreement to remove landmines and the government pledged to temporarily stop bombing the rebels.

Colombia Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)45.045.546.046.647.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,2096,3097,2857,9498,028
GDP (USD bn)234.3287.1335.4370.3378.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.74.06.64.04.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.25.68.64.64.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.65.15.54.74.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.34.919.04.66.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.64.35.0-0.2-1.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.18.07.84.14.7
Unemployment Rate12.011.810.810.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.7-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.834.433.231.734.9
Money (annual variation in %)5.410.218.916.514.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.03.23.72.41.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.22.33.43.22.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.24.45.5-3.0-0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.004.754.253.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)53.533.6-18.316.2-11.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,0431,9201,9391,7671,930
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,1541,8981,8481,7971,869
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.7-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.82.71.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)32.839.756.960.158.8
Imports (USD billion)32.940.554.259.159.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.720.943.35.6-2.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.123.134.09.00.5
International Reserves (USD)25.428.532.337.543.6
External Debt (% of GDP)22.922.522.521.324.3

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5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.97-1.28 %Mar 31
Exchange Rate2,6000.93 %Mar 31
Stock Market9,9990.73 %Mar 31

Colombia Economic Growth

March 17, 2015

Colombia’s growth prospects continue to moderate, reflecting the adverse impact of the low crude price on the economy. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.5% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel also projects economic growth of 3.5%.

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