Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

October 13, 2015

The Colombian economy accelerated annually in Q2 thanks to a partial recovery in the external sector. However, a stream of negative data through Q3 suggest that the economy has been losing momentum. In August, exports shrank to a new record low and consumer confidence dipped into negative territory, reaching its lowest value since April 2009. Nevertheless, the Colombian peso regained some ground through September and the first half of October after hitting a multi-year low against the U.S. dollar at the end of August. Meanwhile, on 24 September, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and FARC leader Rodrigo Londoño signed a historical deal which sets up a common ground for negotiating on issues of justice and reparations. The two parties committed to reaching a final peace agreement within six months.

Colombia Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)45.546.046.647.147.7
GDP per capita (USD)6,3097,2867,9328,0607,919
GDP (USD bn)287335369380377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.06.64.04.94.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.68.64.75.16.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.15.54.84.94.7
Investment (annual variation in %)4.919.04.76.010.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.35.0-0.2-1.81.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.07.84.14.77.6
Unemployment Rate11.810.810.49.79.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.433.231.734.937.8
Money (annual variation in %)10.218.916.514.79.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.23.72.41.93.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.33.43.22.02.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.88.7-4.9-0.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.004.754.253.254.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.6-18.316.2-11.2-11.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9201,9391,7671,9302,389
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8981,8481,7971,8692,003
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.3-5.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.4-19.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.65.44.02.2-6.3
Exports (USD billion)39.756.960.158.854.8
Imports (USD billion)38.251.656.156.661.1
Exports (annual variation in %)20.943.35.6-2.2-6.8
Imports (annual variation in %)22.435.18.80.97.9
International Reserves (USD)28.532.337.543.647.3
External Debt (% of GDP)22.522.521.324.226.8

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.78-0.26 %Oct 21
Exchange Rate2,9610.80 %Oct 21
Stock Market9,455-0.18 %Oct 21

Colombia Economic Growth

October 13, 2015

Despite the efforts of the government and an extensive stimulus plan to counter the adverse commodity shock, low oil prices will dampen exports and drag on growth this year. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the economy to grow 2.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel projects economic growth of 2.9% as well.

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