Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

April 19, 2016

On the surface, recent indicators do not give a clear picture of Colombia’s economic panorama. In February, industrial production index growth reached a nearly-two-year high and the unemployment rate fell by almost two percentage points. Industrial production has shown strong gains in recent months as the newly-upgraded Cartagena refinery is ramping up operations. Tarnishing these positive developments is the sharp decrease in consumer confidence in the beginning of the year. Consumers are seeing inflation picking up as scarce food supply in the wake of one of the worst droughts on record is pushing up food prices. In addition, a weakening peso is exerting upside pressure on prices of imported goods. At the same time, the security situation in the country is becoming increasingly tenuous as the government missed its deadline to sign a peace deal with long-standing rebel groups FARC and ELN.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.12-0.49 %Apr 28
Exchange Rate2,875-2.00 %Apr 28
Stock Market10,083-0.04 %Apr 28

Colombia Economic Growth

April 19, 2016

The Central Bank’s measures to slow inflation and curb the expanding current account deficit will drag on growth in 2016. The unpredictable effects of El Niño and the back-and-forth movement toward an OPEC-led oil production freeze are increasing the uncertainty of Colombia’s outlook. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects economic growth of 3.0%.

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