Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

August 9, 2016

Colombia’s economy started off the year on a soft footing, growing at the slowest pace in almost seven years in Q1. The low-commodity-price environment has damaged the country’s important mining and energy sector and led consumer confidence to fall to historic lows. More recent data for Q2 suggest that economic activity is still struggling: industrial production decelerated in May and the unemployment rate ticked up in June. Moreover, low oil prices have put pressure on government finances and widened the current account deficit, leading Fitch Ratings to revise Colombia’s outlook from stable to negative in July. Against this backdrop, the government unveiled the budget for 2017, which slashes social spending by 10%. Despite the cuts, a rise in debt servicing expenses due to the depreciated value of the peso caused the budget to come in at USD 7.6 billion, nearly 7% larger than the previous year’s.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.69-0.39 %Aug 03
Exchange Rate3,094-0.29 %Aug 03
Stock Market9,5990.16 %Aug 03

Colombia Economic Growth

August 9, 2016

The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP growth slowing to an over-decade low this year due to external headwinds. However, recent strides toward securing a peace agreement with the FARC are positive for the country’s outlook. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.3% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects economic growth of 2.9%.

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