Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

November 8, 2016

In Q3, Colombia’s economy likely remained on a weak footing, following Q2’s sharp deceleration. In September, exports shrank 5.6% annually and consumer confidence remained in pessimistic territory. In August, retail sales contracted for the first time in five months, while industrial production rebounded due to a base effect following the end of a truckers’ strike. To address the struggling economy and its effects on public finances, the government presented its ambitious fiscal reform to Congress on 19 October. It includes a widening of the personal income tax base, a value-added tax hike and a simplification of the corporate tax. The reform is designed to compensate for the shortfall in oil income and aims to increase government revenues back to pre-oil slump levels by 2022.The proposal will likely face strong opposition in Congress after the government-backed peace deal was rejected at the ballot box.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

Sample Report

5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.42-0.27 %Dec 02
Exchange Rate3,0850.38 %Dec 02
Stock Market9,7260.71 %Dec 02

Colombia Economic Growth

November 8, 2016

The ongoing oil slump along with July’s stronger-than-expected truckers’ strike is weighing heavily on Colombia’s economic outlook. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects economic growth of 2.7%.

Colombia Economic News

Search form