Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

August 11, 2015

The Colombian economy grew 2.8% annually in Q1 2015, which marked a deceleration compared to Q4’s 3.5% expansion and was the lowest growth rate since Q3 2012. The fall in oil prices resulted in a sharp drop in exports, which have been falling every month since October 2014. In June, exports shrank again and the Colombian peso weakened to a multi-year low against the U.S. dollar at the beginning of August. Meanwhile, the conflict between the government and the FARC seems to have eased recently following the FARC’s unilateral ceasefire declared on 20 July, casting new hopes that ongoing talks could lead to a peace agreement. The ceasefire followed several months of renewed violence and various attacks targeting vital infrastructure such as roadways, power networks and crude oil pipelines, which highly disturbed the economy in the southern area of the country.

Colombia Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)45.546.046.647.147.7
GDP per capita (USD)6,3097,2867,9328,0607,919
GDP (USD bn)287335369380377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.06.64.04.94.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.68.64.75.16.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.15.54.84.94.7
Investment (annual variation in %)4.919.04.76.010.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.35.0-0.2-1.81.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.07.84.14.77.6
Unemployment Rate11.810.810.49.79.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.433.231.734.937.8
Money (annual variation in %)10.218.916.514.79.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.23.72.41.93.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.33.43.22.02.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.88.7-4.9-0.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.004.754.253.254.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.6-18.316.2-11.2-11.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9201,9391,7671,9302,389
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8981,8481,7971,8692,003
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.3-5.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.4-19.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.65.44.02.2-6.3
Exports (USD billion)39.756.960.158.854.8
Imports (USD billion)38.251.656.156.661.1
Exports (annual variation in %)20.943.35.6-2.2-6.8
Imports (annual variation in %)22.435.18.80.97.9
International Reserves (USD)28.532.337.543.647.3
External Debt (% of GDP)22.522.521.324.226.8

Sample Report

5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.

Download

Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.70-0.04 %Aug 25
Exchange Rate3,209-0.93 %Aug 25
Stock Market8,8650.46 %Aug 25

Colombia Economic Growth

August 11, 2015

Subdued exports caused by low oil prices should drag on growth, despite the efforts of the government and an extensive stimulus plan to counter the adverse commodity shock. LatinFocus panelists expect the economy to grow 3.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel projects economic growth of 3.1%.

Colombia Economic News

Search form