Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

February 14, 2017

While recent monthly data suggest that the Colombian economy experienced a slight improvement in Q4, 2016 overall is likely to have been its worst year since the financial crisis, dragged down by the collapse in global oil prices. In November and December exports benefited from a recovery in oil prices and grew at double-digit rates. However, in Q3, industrial production growth remained largely stagnant and consumer confidence continued to sink further into pessimistic territory. On 7 February, the government began peace talks with Colombia’s second largest rebel group—the National Liberation Army (ELN). The negotiations come only a few months after the government secured a historic peace agreement with the FARC. If successful, the country could put an end to over five decades of armed conflict, in which thousands were killed and millions were displaced.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.930.0 %Feb 24
Exchange Rate2,8900.68 %Feb 24
Stock Market9,940-0.76 %Feb 24

Colombia Economic Growth

February 14, 2017

GDP growth is likely to accelerate this year, supported by higher global oil prices and loose monetary policy, now that inflation is under control. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel projects economic growth of 3.1%.

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