Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

July 14, 2015

According to data, the Colombian economy grew 2.8% in Q1 2015. The reading was a deceleration from Q4’s 3.5% expansion and marked the lowest growth rate since Q3 2012. The economy has been significantly affected by low oil prices, which has led to major falls in exports every month since October 2014. In May, exports recorded another sharp contraction and the Colombian peso weakened to a multi-year low against the U.S. dollar in the beginning of July. Meanwhile, the conflict between the government and the FARC has intensified since the latter lifted its unilateral ceasefire in April. The south of the country has been the scene of various attacks targeting vital infrastructure such as roadways, power networks and crude oil pipelines. These actions have put the peace talks that were ongoing for almost two years in limbo. However, the FARC’s chief negotiator announced on 8 July a one-month unilateral ceasefire coming into force on 20 July to try to give a new start to negotiations.

Colombia Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)45.546.046.647.147.7
GDP per capita (USD)6,3097,2867,9328,0607,919
GDP (USD bn)287335369380377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.06.64.04.94.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.68.64.75.16.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.15.54.84.94.7
Investment (annual variation in %)4.919.04.76.010.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.35.0-0.2-1.81.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.07.84.14.77.6
Unemployment Rate11.810.810.49.79.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.433.231.734.937.8
Money (annual variation in %)10.218.916.514.79.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.23.72.41.93.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.33.43.22.02.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.88.7-4.9-0.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.004.754.253.254.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.6-18.316.2-11.2-11.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9201,9391,7671,9302,389
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8981,8481,7971,8692,003
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.3-5.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.4-19.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.65.44.02.2-6.3
Exports (USD billion)39.756.960.158.854.8
Imports (USD billion)38.251.656.156.661.1
Exports (annual variation in %)20.943.35.6-2.2-6.8
Imports (annual variation in %)22.435.18.80.97.9
International Reserves (USD)28.532.337.543.647.3
External Debt (% of GDP)22.522.521.324.226.8

Sample Report

5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.160.06 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate2,8600.25 %Jul 27
Stock Market9,841-0.97 %Jul 27

Colombia Economic Growth

July 14, 2015

Despite the government’s extensive stimulus package to support the economy, subdued exports due to low oil prices will refrain the economy from growing as much as in previous years. LatinFocus panelists expect the economy to grow 3.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel projects economic growth of 3.2% as well.

Sample Report

See all the data and analysis available in each of our Regional and Country reports.

Download

Colombia Economic News

Search form