Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

September 13, 2016

On 24 August, after five decades of war, the government and the FARC finally agreed on a peace deal. The deal will need to be ratified first in a plebiscite on 2 October. A victory at the ballot box could provide President Juan Manuel Santos with political capital to push for an important tax reform to improve the government’s finances. Low oil prices have battered the economy and put pressure on the state’s fiscal accounts. GDP grew just 2.0% year-on-year in Q2, the weakest pace in over six years, due to subdued private consumption, a further contraction in investment and increased imports.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.080.71 %Sep 29
Exchange Rate2,893-0.64 %Sep 29
Stock Market9,897-0.43 %Sep 29

Colombia Economic Growth

September 13, 2016

Our panel sees GDP growth slowing to a seven-year low this year due to expectations of a slowdown in total consumption in the wake of a tightening fiscal and monetary policy and persistent external headwinds related to subdued global growth. However, a ratified peace deal with the FARC and prospects of higher oil prices toward the end of this year are positive for the country’s outlook. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.2% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects economic growth of 2.8%.

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