Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

June 13, 2017

According to recently released data, the economy started the year on a sour note. GDP growth slowed from 1.6% in Q4 to 1.1% in Q1 as a result of a deceleration in domestic demand growth. Private consumption was hard hit in Q1 as a consequence of the three-percentage-point hike in the Value-added Tax implemented by Colombia’s cash-strapped government as part of a comprehensive tax reform. On a better note, government consumption growth accelerated and fixed investment growth contracted at a slower rate. Despite Q1’s disappointing print, the economy is widely expected to gradually gain traction in later months.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9296,030
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.22.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.43.6
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.81.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.31.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.78.16.2
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.69.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.741.4
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.0

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.522.03 %Jun 16
Exchange Rate2,9750.74 %Jun 16
Stock Market10,9040.95 %Jun 16

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Colombia Economic Growth

June 13, 2017

GDP growth will experience a slight acceleration in 2017 on the back of accommodative monetary policy, stronger government consumption and higher commodity prices. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel projects economic growth of 2.9%.

Colombia Economic News

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