Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

January 19, 2016

Colombia’s economy grew 3.2% in Q3 2015, which was an acceleration compared to the 3.0% increase recorded in Q2 and marked the strongest result since Q4 2014. The economy benefited from a positive boost from total consumption. Data through Q4 point to more moderate growth, as industrial production slowed to a three-month low in October and consumer confidence inched down in November. As low oil prices weigh on government revenues, authorities decided to sell their majority stake in national power generator ISAGEN SA for USD 2.0 billion in January in an effort to finance infrastructure modernization. Indeed, revenues of the sale are planned to be used on upgrading and expanding highways in the less-connected areas of the country. By taking this step, the government is attempting to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal discipline. The sale, however, triggered public protests as citizens accuse the government of selling one of its most profitable assets and doubt that the income will be used as promised. This comes amid general corruption accusations in both the country and the region.

Colombia Economy Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)45.546.046.647.147.7
GDP per capita (USD)6,3097,2867,9328,0607,919
GDP (USD bn)287335369380377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.06.64.04.94.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.68.64.75.16.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.15.54.84.94.7
Investment (annual variation in %)4.919.04.76.010.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.35.0-0.2-1.81.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.07.84.14.77.6
Unemployment Rate11.810.810.49.79.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.433.231.734.937.8
Money (annual variation in %)10.218.916.514.79.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.23.72.41.93.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.33.43.22.02.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.88.7-4.9-0.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.004.754.253.254.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.6-18.316.2-11.2-11.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9201,9391,7671,9302,389
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8981,8481,7971,8692,003
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.3-5.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-8.7-9.7-11.3-12.4-19.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.65.44.02.2-6.3
Exports (USD billion)39.756.960.158.854.8
Imports (USD billion)38.251.656.156.661.1
Exports (annual variation in %)20.943.35.6-2.2-6.8
Imports (annual variation in %)22.435.18.80.97.9
International Reserves (USD)28.532.337.543.647.3
External Debt (% of GDP)22.522.521.324.226.8

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.58-0.29 %Feb 05
Exchange Rate3,3340.45 %Feb 05
Stock Market8,7070.43 %Feb 05

Colombia Economic Growth

January 19, 2016

While Colombia’s economy has showed signs of renewed dynamism, it remains exposed to low commodity prices, and immediate concerns such as El Niño threaten to dampen a fragile recovery. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect the economy to grow 2.7% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects economic growth of 3.4%.

Colombia Economic News

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