Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

May 17, 2016

The light at the end of the tunnel in Latin America’s longest-running civil war may be approaching. After reshuffling his cabinet with members more supportive of a peace accord, President Juan Manuel Santos’ government and the FARC rebels have attempted to safeguard the peace process by making it constitutionally binding. This would prevent interference in the peace talks from fierce political opposition. The president has stated that he will propose the constitutional amendment to Congress this week. Although Santos has made ending the long-running conflict a priority, the absence of an agreement so far has cost him support amongst voters. Further, he must also address the deteriorating economic situation: consumer confidence is still abysmal, in part due to surging prices for food and other consumer goods, and the labor market is showing signs of weakness.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.09-0.37 %May 20
Exchange Rate3,052-0.15 %May 20
Stock Market9,802-0.13 %May 20

Colombia Economic Growth

May 17, 2016

Colombia is facing external challenges associated with the low price of hydrocarbons, a primary export good. High inflation is harming consumer sentiment, which could negatively impact consumption this year. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding peace negotiations could also negatively impact growth. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects economic growth of 3.0%.

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