Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

July 11, 2017

The Ministry of Finance presented this year’s medium-term fiscal plan on 14 June. The new macroeconomic assumptions include a downward revision to GDP growth this year, partially reflecting Q1’s disappointing reading. While the economy is expected to pick up in 2018, public spending is projected to fall—the result of fiscal consolidation efforts—and thus represents a downside risk to GDP growth. The fiscal plan also presented the first estimates for the costs of implementing the peace deal with FARC, which amount to about 15% of 2016’s GDP over the course of the next 15 years.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9296,030
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.22.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.43.6
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.81.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.31.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.78.16.2
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.69.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.741.4
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.3-5.1-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.2-12.3-19.4-18.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.6
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.836.0
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.4
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.0

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.011.30 %Jul 26
Exchange Rate3,017-0.44 %Jul 26
Stock Market10,914-0.25 %Jul 26

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Colombia Economic Growth

July 11, 2017

The Colombian economy will be supported this year by accommodative monetary policy, stronger government consumption and higher commodities prices. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.0% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel projects economic growth of 2.8%.

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