Colombia

Colombia Economic Outlook

November 11, 2014

Economic growth lost steam in the second quarter, cooling down from Q1’s buoyant 6.5% pace to a milder but still robust 4.2%. Dwindling net exports and, to a lesser extent, weaker growth in consumption and investment drove the slowdown. More recent indicators send mixed signals, but overall suggest that economic growth will remain solid in the second half of the year. While the recent weakening of the Columbian peso is supportive of exports, tumbling international oil prices and lower national production are likely to be a drag on the net oil exporter’s economy. In addition, falling oil exports exacerbated the government’s difficulties in financing public spending, prompting it to propose the extension of a tax on financial transactions and to introduce a wealth tax.

Colombia Economic Data

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Population (million)45.045.546.146.647.2
GDP per capita (USD)5,2096,3087,2847,9468,023
GDP (USD bn)234.3287.1335.4370.3378.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.74.06.64.14.7
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)0.25.68.64.64.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.65.15.54.74.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.34.919.04.66.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.64.35.0-0.2-1.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.18.17.84.14.7
Unemployment Rate12.011.810.810.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-3.5-2.0-1.9-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.834.433.231.734.9
Money (annual variation in %)5.410.218.916.514.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.03.23.72.41.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.22.33.43.22.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.24.45.5-3.0-0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.004.754.253.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)53.533.6-18.316.2-11.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,0431,9201,9391,7671,930
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,1541,8981,8481,7971,869
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-3.0-2.9-3.1-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.9-8.7-9.7-11.6-12.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-0.82.71.0-0.6
Exports (USD billion)32.939.756.960.158.8
Imports (USD billion)32.940.554.259.159.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-12.720.943.35.6-2.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-17.123.134.09.00.5
International Reserves (USD)25.428.532.337.543.6
External Debt (% of GDP)22.922.522.521.324.3

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5 years of Colombia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

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Colombia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.61.68 %Nov 26
Exchange Rate2,1630.20 %Nov 26
Stock Market12,511-1.33 %Nov 26

Colombia Economic Growth

November 11, 2014

The expected slowdown in crude sales weakened the economic outlook slightly. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project economic growth of 4.9% in 2014. For 2015, the panel sees economic growth of 4.5%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection.

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