Colombia Economic Forecast

Colombia Economic Outlook

January 17, 2017

In Q3 2016, the Colombian economy recorded its worst performance since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009. The latest monthly data sent mixed signals of the economy in Q4, which suggests that Colombia closed 2016 still in bad shape. In October, growth in industrial production decelerated sharply, while retail sales grew again after two months of decline. Meanwhile, in November, exports grew at a double-digit rate but consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month. On 22 December, Congress approved the long-awaited tax reform that aims to bolster tax revenues and allow the country to retain its credit rating amid a slump in oil earnings. The reform includes a new tax on dividends, an increase in the value-added tax and a gradual decrease in income tax for businesses, among other measures.

Colombia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)46.046.647.147.748.2
GDP per capita (USD)7,2867,9328,0607,9406,044
GDP (USD bn)335369380378291
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.64.04.94.43.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)8.64.75.06.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.54.84.64.33.7
Investment (annual variation in %)19.04.76.89.82.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.0-0.2-1.81.30.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.84.14.77.66.5
Unemployment Rate10.810.49.79.18.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-1.9-2.2-2.6-3.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.231.734.937.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.916.514.79.112.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.72.41.93.76.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.43.22.02.95.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.7-4.9-0.16.05.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.253.254.505.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-18.316.2-11.2-11.0-26.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,9391,7671,9302,3893,175
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,8481,7971,8692,0032,749
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.9-3.0-3.2-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-9.7-11.1-12.3-19.6-18.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)5.44.02.2-6.3-15.9
Exports (USD billion)56.960.158.854.835.7
Imports (USD billion)51.656.156.661.151.6
Exports (annual variation in %)43.35.6-2.2-6.8-34.9
Imports (annual variation in %)35.18.80.97.9-15.5
International Reserves (USD)32.337.543.647.346.7
External Debt (% of GDP)22.521.324.226.838.2

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Colombia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.91-0.29 %Jan 23
Exchange Rate2,9310.32 %Jan 23
Stock Market10,1250.02 %Jan 23

Colombia Economic Growth

January 17, 2017

Higher oil prices following the OPEC output freeze coupled with increased infrastructure spending should provide a boost to Colombia’s economy this year. Analysts expect the economy to grow 2.4% in 2017, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panel projects economic growth of 3.1%.

Colombia Economic News

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