Belarus Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Economic conditions were improving prior to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but have since seen a sharp moderation due to the impact of international sanctions. In March, annual GDP contracted for the time in over a year. Similarly, after hitting a multi-month high in January, industrial production swung into a marked contraction in February–March. Adding insult to injury, inflation hit a near seven year-high in March, weighing further on consumers’ purchasing power. In Q2, GDP continued to freefall in April, registering its sharpest contraction since December 2016 as the war raged on to the east and relentless sanctions by the West continued to strangle the economy. According to Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov, the aforementioned sanctions will likely result in the loss of around one-third of the country’s exports, boding ill for the economy ahead.
Belarus Economic GrowthFollowing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, our panelists sharply downgraded their growth forecasts for Belarus. GDP is projected to contract this year due to the impact of Western sanctions and the fallout from the war. This is expected to lead to a broad-based slowdown in the economy. A prolonged military campaign in Ukraine and additional sanctions pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to contract 6.3% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2023, GDP is expected to fall -0.4%.
Belarus Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||2.10||-0.36 %||Dec 31|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Belarus Economic News
November 16, 2022
Industrial output shrank by 4.1% year on year in October, down from September’s 2.1% contraction.
October 17, 2022
Industrial output shrank by 2.1% year on year in September, up from August’s 9.4% contraction.
October 12, 2022
Inflation dropped to 17.4% in September, below August’s 17.9%.
September 16, 2022
Industrial output shrank by 9.4% compared to the same month of the previous year in August, slightly up from July’s 12.2% contraction.
September 9, 2022
Inflation came in at 17.9% in August, down from July’s 18.1%.