Argentina Economic Outlook
August 8, 2017Hard data for Q2 suggests that the recovery is finally gathering pace. Economic activity recorded its best performance in a year and a half in May, and in June industrial production jumped on the back of a broad-based expansion, with the food, automotive and metallurgic sectors leading the way. Adding to the good news, the country posted a primary fiscal deficit of 1.5% of GDP in the first half of 2017, significantly smaller than the government target of 2.0%. On the downside, exports fell in June, dragged down mainly by declining demand from China, India and Venezuela, and in July consumer sentiment remained downbeat, largely due to perceived uncertain short-term economic prospects for the country. In the second half of July, the peso saw some weakness against the U.S. dollar. Investors hedged portfolios with dollar-denominated assets as they grew more concerned about the possible outcome of this October’s parliamentary elections, following surveys suggesting that former-President Cristina Kirchner could secure a Senate seat. This prompted the Central Bank to intervene in the FX market by selling dollars, which put an end to the slide.
Argentina Economy Data
5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||17.35||0.83 %||Aug 17|
|Stock Market||22,724||-0.71 %||Aug 17|
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Argentina Economic Growth
August 8, 2017Thanks to the reforms adopted by the Macri administration, the economy will rebound this year. Fixed investment will recover owing to an improved business environment and higher public infrastructure spending, while household spending should benefit from declining inflation and rising wages. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 2.6% this year, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2018.
Argentina Economic News
August 11, 2017
According to the National Statistics Institute (INDEC), consumer prices in the Greater Buenos Aires capital area rose 1.7% in July from the previous month, up slightly from June’s 1.4% increase but undershooting market expectations of a stronger 2.0% increase.
August 1, 2017
In June, industrial production jumped 6.6% over the same month last year, according to the latest data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
July 26, 2017
In May, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) rose 3.3%, the fastest rate in one and a half years well above April’s revised 0.5% expansion (previously reported: +0.6% yoy).
July 26, 2017
In July, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index rose from June’s 42.0 to 42.5.
July 26, 2017
In June, exports dropped 2.6% from the same month last year, contrasting May’s subdued 0.8% increase.