Argentina Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022The economy seemingly moved into a lower gear in Q1. Annual growth in economic activity slowed in the quarter. Moreover, consumer confidence dropped further, while inflation spiked. On top of this, the industrial sector expanded at a weaker pace than in Q4. Turning to Q2, a further deterioration in consumer confidence in April-May, coupled with rising inflation, bodes poorly for household spending and overall activity. Meanwhile, the country recently postponed payments on its over USD 2 billion debt to the Paris Club group until 2024 or until a new framework is agreed. Moreover, the government launched a tender to build a new gas pipeline from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which could increase transport capacity by 25%, and is encouraging investment in the project. Finally, in order to reduce the fiscal deficit, an 'extraordinary income' tax was announced in June, which should mainly affect the grains industry.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe pace of economic growth looks set to moderate this year due to a tougher base of comparison. Elevated inflation and frail macro fundamentals will restrain domestic demand, weighing on growth. Downbeat investor sentiment amid an unclear policy agenda poses a downside risk. Conversely, a timely implementation of the recent IMF deal poses an upside risk. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 2.9% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2023.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
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Argentina Economic News
November 30, 2022
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index decreased to 35.1 in November from 35.6 in October.
November 24, 2022
Merchandise exports plummeted 11.5% over the same month last year in October (September: -2.2% year-on-year).
November 24, 2022
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) expanded 4.8% in year-on-year terms in September, which followed August's 6.6% increase.
November 17, 2022
Inflation came in at 88.0% in October, up from September’s 83.0%.
November 9, 2022
Industrial output expanded 4.2% compared to the same month of the previous year in September, which was a deterioration from August's 7.8% increase.