Argentina Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022The economy seemingly moved into a lower gear in Q1. Annual growth in economic activity slowed in the quarter. Moreover, consumer confidence dropped further, while inflation spiked. On top of this, the industrial sector expanded at a weaker pace than in Q4. Turning to Q2, a further deterioration in consumer confidence in April-May, coupled with rising inflation, bodes poorly for household spending and overall activity. Meanwhile, the country recently postponed payments on its over USD 2 billion debt to the Paris Club group until 2024 or until a new framework is agreed. Moreover, the government launched a tender to build a new gas pipeline from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which could increase transport capacity by 25%, and is encouraging investment in the project. Finally, in order to reduce the fiscal deficit, an 'extraordinary income' tax was announced in June, which should mainly affect the grains industry.
Argentina Economic GrowthThe pace of economic growth looks set to moderate this year due to a tougher base of comparison. Elevated inflation and frail macro fundamentals will restrain domestic demand, weighing on growth. Downbeat investor sentiment amid an unclear policy agenda poses a downside risk. Conversely, a timely implementation of the recent IMF deal poses an upside risk. LatinFocus Consensus panelists see the economy growing 2.9% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2023.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
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Argentina Economic News
July 1, 2022
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) grew 5.1% year-on-year in April (March: +4.8% yoy).
July 1, 2022
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index increased to 39.1 in June from 36.3 in May.
June 29, 2022
Merchandise exports rose 20.7% over the same month last year in May (April: +35.7% year-on-year).
June 27, 2022
GDP growth lost momentum in the first quarter, falling to 6.0% year-on-year (yoy), from 8.9% in the fourth quarter of last year.
June 15, 2022
Consumer prices rose 5.05% over the previous month in May, moderating from April's 6.05% increase.