Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

September 13, 2016

Argentina’s economy remains in a deep recession according to the latest economic indicators. June’s monthly economic indicator recorded the steepest annual drop since August 2014 due to low commodity prices and negative spillovers from President Mauricio Macri’s policies to cut the budget deficit. Moreover, exports contracted for the second consecutive month in July, mainly due to the recession in Brazil. Against this backdrop, in August, sentiment among households lost the ground gained in July. On a positive note, capital inflows and foreign reserves, which hit a 10-month high in July, have been boosted by a unified exchange rate market and the country’s return to the international credit markets after paying its holdout bondholders, which has in turn created a more reliable investment situation. Reform momentum suffered a setback on 18 August following the Supreme Court’s decision to nullify a hike in gas prices implemented in March, which was intended to slash utility subsidies.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)40.641.041.542.042.4
GDP per capita (USD)13,76814,80115,03912,90010,301
GDP (USD bn)559607624541437
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.40.82.90.52.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.80.54.2-1.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.24.34.4-0.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)19.4-7.03.1-5.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.6
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.8-1.7-2.5-4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.032.532.541.050.9
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-0.2-1.9-1.5-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-1.4-12.1-8.1-15.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.1-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.356.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-10.0-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.3
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)25.523.622.626.5-  

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Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate15.37-0.05 %Sep 29
Stock Market16,743-0.07 %Sep 29

Argentina Economic Growth

September 13, 2016

While the new government’s austerity policies to stabilize the economy are hitting short-term growth, they should contribute to a rebound in 2017. Panelists project that GDP will contract 1.3% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. For 2017, analysts expect the economy to expand 3.0%.

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