Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

March 14, 2017

A sluggish economic recovery is underway, with December’s monthly indicator for economic activity recording the smallest drop in 2016. In January, industrial output benefited once again from upbeat momentum in the automotive sector, while improving regional trade flows continued to boost demand for Argentine goods abroad. These encouraging signs of recovery, however, are hardly being felt by Argentineans. Multi-faceted policy challenges, subdued household purchasing power, numerous hikes to utility fees and arduous wage negotiations with trade unions are all weighing on consumer sentiment, which plummeted to an over two-year low in February. On 22 February, Treasury Minister Nicolas Dujovne announced new targets for the primary fiscal balance for the remainder of President Macri’s term and presented a new fiscal framework that, in a bid to make fiscal policy more credible, includes quarterly targets and promises enhanced reporting of monthly data.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)40.641.041.542.042.4
GDP per capita (USD)13,76814,80115,03912,90010,301
GDP (USD bn)559607624541437
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.40.82.90.52.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.80.54.2-1.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.24.34.4-0.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)19.4-7.03.1-5.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.6
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.8-1.7-2.5-4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.032.532.541.050.9
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-0.2-1.9-1.5-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-1.4-12.1-8.1-15.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.1-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.356.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-10.0-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.3
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)25.523.622.626.5-  

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Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate15.54-0.20 %Mar 28
Stock Market20,0221.11 %Mar 28

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Argentina Economic Growth

March 14, 2017

Momentum will continue to build as economic activity picks up and inflation decelerates, benefiting households and pushing up private consumption. In addition, as Macri’s economic reform drive begins to bear fruit, upbeat business sentiment will provide a boost to fixed investment. Nonetheless, panelists have revised downwards their forecasts for this year, weighed down by uncertainty overseas and increased domestic political unrest. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 2.9% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.1% in 2018.

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