Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

January 17, 2017

The economy continues to feel the impact of tighter economic policies aimed at reducing macroeconomic imbalances. In Q3, GDP contracted at the sharpest pace in two years as household spending remained constrained by high unemployment and declining real wages. The dire economic situation is affecting business sentiment, which, in turn, is causing private investment to drop. Some green shoots, however, are starting to emerge: on a sequential basis, the fall in economic activity softened in Q3, and consumer confidence and industrial production improved in December and November respectively. Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay resigned on 26 December due to growing disappointment over the pace of the economic recovery and disagreements over economic policy with other cabinet members. The ministry of finance will now be split into two ministries: finance and treasury. Despite Prat-Gay’s resignation, officials stated that the new ministers will broadly follow the same direction of economic policy.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)40.641.041.542.042.4
GDP per capita (USD)13,76814,80115,03912,90010,301
GDP (USD bn)559607624541437
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.40.82.90.52.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.80.54.2-1.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.24.34.4-0.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)19.4-7.03.1-5.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.6
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.8-1.7-2.5-4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.032.532.541.050.9
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-0.2-1.9-1.5-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-1.4-12.1-8.1-15.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.1-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.356.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-10.0-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.3
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)25.523.622.626.5-  

Sample Report

5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate15.950.25 %Jan 23
Stock Market19,4712.26 %Jan 23

Argentina Economic Growth

January 17, 2017

Although Argentina will return to growth this year thanks to a combination of higher real wages, improved business sentiment and stronger regional growth, spillovers from the government’s tough economic reforms are casting doubts about how strong the economic recovery will be. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 3.0% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. Next year, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.1%.

Argentina Economic News

Search form