Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

August 9, 2016

Argentina’s growth remains at a standstill as the transition into a market-oriented economic model is proving difficult. The economy fell into recession in Q1 and most likely had another disappointing performance in Q2. Exports contracted at a double-digit rate in June mainly due to the deep recession in Brazil—Argentina’s main trading partner. Moreover, industrial production contracted for the fifth consecutive month and consumer confidence remained in contractionary territory in July. That said, in the same month, the Central Bank’s reserves hit a 10-month high after the sale of nearly USD 3.0 billion in bonds with maturities of 12 and 20 years. Economic sentiment has been negatively affected by high inflation and by the removal of utility subsidies. The massive layoffs that President Mauricio Macri’s government has been undertaking since he took power in December 2015 and the increase in tariffs have provoked protests and strikes across the country. Growing public discontent has caused Macri’s approval rating to drop considerably in recent months.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)40.641.041.542.042.4
GDP per capita (USD)13,76814,80115,03912,90010,301
GDP (USD bn)559607624541437
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.40.82.90.52.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.80.54.2-1.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.24.34.4-0.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)19.4-7.03.1-5.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.6
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.8-1.7-2.5-4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.032.532.541.050.9
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-0.2-1.9-1.5-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-1.4-12.1-8.1-15.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.1-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.356.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-10.0-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.3
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)25.523.622.626.5-  

Sample Report

5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate14.870.12 %Aug 03
Stock Market15,4302.44 %Aug 03

Argentina Economic Growth

August 9, 2016

Low commodity prices, the prolonged recession in Brazil and a slow adjustment to the new government’s policies are factors clouding this year’s growth outlook. However, following renewed access to international capital markets, the economy is expected to largely benefit from fresh capital inflows. Analysts project that Argentina’s GDP will contract 1.2% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. For 2017, analysts expect the economy to rebound and expand 3.0%.

Argentina Economic News

Search form