Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

April 11, 2017

Argentina’s economy expanded in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in January, suggesting that activity is continuing to firm up, albeit at an uneven pace. Comprehensive data for Q4 GDP point to an increase in export volumes as the main driver behind the improved momentum, with the domestic economy stuck in the doldrums. President Macri’s reform-oriented agenda and sky-rocketing inflation have dented household purchasing power, while a hoped-for rebound in fixed investment on the heels of an improved policy framework and increased credibility has failed to materialize so far. The government’s economic policymaking, however, has earned praise from credit rating agencies, with S&P Global Ratings upgrading Argentina’s sovereign bond rating to B from B- on 4 April, noting a strengthening in policy predictability and accountability. At the same time, discontent continues to mount among citizens, the latest salvo being the staging of a general strike on 6 April.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)41.341.742.242.743.1
GDP per capita (USD)12,76313,88514,54013,13314,854
GDP (USD bn)527579614560641
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.0-1.02.4-2.52.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)10.2-1.34.0-3.94.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.41.13.6-4.43.5
Investment (annual variation in %)17.4-7.12.3-6.83.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.3
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-2.1-1.9-2.4-3.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.034.133.039.634.8
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-0.2-2.0-1.4-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-1.4-12.1-8.0-16.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.2-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.456.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-9.9-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.4
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)27.625.123.125.826.6

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Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate15.51-0.02 %May 10
Stock Market21,5101.75 %May 10

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Argentina Economic Growth

April 11, 2017

The economy is expected to rebound this year as last year’s policy changes start to feed through. Households will benefit from higher economic activity and decelerating inflation, fixed investment will gather steam on the back of improved business sentiment, and government consumption will rebound ahead of October’s mid-term election. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 2.8% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.0% in 2018.

Argentina Economic News

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