Argentina Economic Outlook
October 11, 2016The Argentine economy was in deep recession in Q2 after recording the third consecutive quarter-on-quarter decrease. GDP contracted 3.4% on an annual basis as a deceleration in private consumption, due to a decrease in real wages and a deterioration in the labor market, took a toll on growth. Q2’s sharp contraction shows that the recovery in Argentina might turn out to be slower than previously expected despite the emergence of green shoots in some sectors of the economy, particularly in the construction sector. The government has recently presented its 2017 draft budget to Congress. This aims at a gradual fiscal consolidation since, according to Minister of the Economy Alfonso Prat-Gay, any significant reduction of the fiscal deficit could threaten the already weak economy. The pace of fiscal consolidation will broadly depend on the evolution of the economy, the fiscal outcome of the tax amnesty and wage negotiations next year.
Argentina Economy Data
5 years of Argentina economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||15.21||-0.17 %||Oct 26|
|Stock Market||18,188||-1.20 %||Oct 26|
Argentina Economic Growth
October 11, 2016The slow adjustment of the economy to the government’s policies, the prolonged recession in Brazil and escalating public discontent against free market reforms are clouding this year’s outlook. Following Q2’s steep contraction, panelists cut their GDP projections for this year by 0.3 percentage points and they now expect the economy to contract 1.6%. Analysts expect the economy to rebound and expand 3.1% next year on the back of a rise in fiscal spending ahead of the mid-term elections and an increase in capital inflows.
Argentina Economic News
October 4, 2016
At its weekly meeting on 4 October, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) decided to keep the 35-day Lebac interest rate unchanged at 26.75%, matching the previous week’s decision.
September 30, 2016
In August, industrial production contracted 5.7% over the same month of the previous year, according to the latest data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
September 28, 2016
In July, the monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) declined 5.9% year-on-year, which was below the 4.7% fall in June and represented the steepest contraction since July 2009.
September 28, 2016
In August, exports expanded 12.0% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 10.8% decrease seen in July and marked the highest reading since May 2013.
September 26, 2016
In August, consumer prices in the greater Buenos Aires capital area increased 0.2% over the previous month, according to recent data published by the National Statistics Institute (INDEC).