Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

June 13, 2017

The economic recovery seems to be underway, although it remains shaky, as the economy is still struggling to shrug off the significant economic distortions inherited from the previous administration. Economic activity returned to growth in March after February’s contraction, mainly thanks to expansions in the construction, financial and agricultural sectors, and construction activity continued to grow healthily in April. Nevertheless, consumers grew slightly more pessimistic in May due to a worsening perception of the macroeconomic situation, with inflation remaining stubbornly high and the economy taking longer than expected to pick itself up. The weakness in the external sector observed in Q1 persisted at the start of the second quarter, with export growth decelerating and imports jumping in April, likely due to the effects of a strong peso. However, the appreciation of the currency came to an abrupt halt in May after the foreign exchange market was shaken by surging political instability in Brazil, causing the Central Bank to stop U.S. dollar purchases.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)41.341.742.242.743.1
GDP per capita (USD)12,76313,88514,54013,13314,854
GDP (USD bn)527579614560641
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.0-1.02.4-2.52.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)10.2-1.34.0-3.94.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)9.41.13.6-4.43.5
Investment (annual variation in %)17.4-7.12.3-6.83.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.3
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-2.1-1.9-2.4-3.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.034.133.039.634.8
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.1-0.4-2.1-1.6-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.6-2.3-13.0-8.9-16.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.2-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.456.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-9.9-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.4
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)30.528.025.929.026.6

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Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate16.050.45 %Jun 16
Stock Market21,2911.34 %Jun 16

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Argentina Economic Growth

June 13, 2017

The economy should return to growth this year, as it reaps the fruits of the reforms implemented by the Macri administration. Fixed investment should benefit from an improved business environment and the liberalization of capital controls, as well as from stronger public infrastructure spending, while private consumption will be underpinned by slowing inflation and recovering confidence. Analysts foresee the economy expanding 2.6% this year, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2018.

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