Argentina Economic Forecast

Argentina Economic Outlook

June 14, 2016

Argentina’s economy is experiencing a period of macroeconomic adjustment as a result of the structural reforms undertaken by the administration of Mauricio Macri. According to official data released recently by the statistical office, in April, industrial production contracted a sharp 6.7% on an annual basis, thus highlighting the effect of the government’s austerity measures. Moreover, massive layoffs and record-high inflation rates are a cause of concern for Argentinians and consumer confidence hit the lowest level in nearly two years in May. On a positive note, the currency strengthened significantly against the U.S dollar at the end of last month as the annual soy harvest boosted demand for pesos. In the political arena, Marci recently presented a tax amnesty to Congress that aims at repatriating capital stashed abroad in order to increase government revenues and lure dollars into the battered economy.

Argentina Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)40.641.041.542.042.4
GDP per capita (USD)13,76814,80115,03912,90010,301
GDP (USD bn)559607624541437
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.40.82.90.52.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)11.80.54.2-1.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.24.34.4-0.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)19.4-7.03.1-5.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.5-7.80.0-1.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)27.726.326.737.327.6
Unemployment Rate7.27.27.17.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.8-1.7-2.5-4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.032.532.541.050.9
Money (annual variation in %)29.838.425.728.928.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.510.826.638.026.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.810.018.438.026.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.713.114.828.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)13.3212.4217.7519.6127.56
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-30.115.988.959.136.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.304.926.528.4612.94
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.134.555.488.129.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-0.2-1.9-1.5-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-1.4-12.1-8.1-15.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.012.01.53.1-3.0
Exports (USD billion)83.080.076.068.356.8
Imports (USD billion)74.068.074.465.259.8
Exports (annual variation in %)21.7-3.6-5.0-10.0-17.0
Imports (annual variation in %)30.2-8.19.5-12.4-8.3
International Reserves (USD)46.443.330.631.425.6
External Debt (% of GDP)25.523.622.626.5-  

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Argentina Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.690.15 %Dec 17
Exchange Rate13.960.32 %Jun 21
Stock Market13,6814.65 %Jun 21

Argentina Economic Growth

June 14, 2016

Low commodity prices, the prolonged recession in Brazil and a slow adjustment to the new government’s policies are factors clouding this year’s growth outlook. However, following the renewed access to international capital markets, the economy is expected to largely benefit from fresh capital inflows. Analysts project Argentina’s GDP to contract 1.0% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. For 2017, analysts project the economy to rebound and expand 2.9%.

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