Argentina Economic Outlook
August 9, 2016Argentina’s growth remains at a standstill as the transition into a market-oriented economic model is proving difficult. The economy fell into recession in Q1 and most likely had another disappointing performance in Q2. Exports contracted at a double-digit rate in June mainly due to the deep recession in Brazil—Argentina’s main trading partner. Moreover, industrial production contracted for the fifth consecutive month and consumer confidence remained in contractionary territory in July. That said, in the same month, the Central Bank’s reserves hit a 10-month high after the sale of nearly USD 3.0 billion in bonds with maturities of 12 and 20 years. Economic sentiment has been negatively affected by high inflation and by the removal of utility subsidies. The massive layoffs that President Mauricio Macri’s government has been undertaking since he took power in December 2015 and the increase in tariffs have provoked protests and strikes across the country. Growing public discontent has caused Macri’s approval rating to drop considerably in recent months.
Argentina Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||6.69||0.15 %||Dec 17|
|Exchange Rate||14.87||0.12 %||Aug 03|
|Stock Market||15,430||2.44 %||Aug 03|
Argentina Economic Growth
August 9, 2016Low commodity prices, the prolonged recession in Brazil and a slow adjustment to the new government’s policies are factors clouding this year’s growth outlook. However, following renewed access to international capital markets, the economy is expected to largely benefit from fresh capital inflows. Analysts project that Argentina’s GDP will contract 1.2% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. For 2017, analysts expect the economy to rebound and expand 3.0%.
Argentina Economic News
July 28, 2016
In June, industrial production contracted 6.4% over the same month of the previous year according to the latest data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).
July 26, 2016
In July, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index increased from the previous month’s reading of 42.7 to 45.6, which marked the highest figure in four months.
July 26, 2016
In June, exports dropped 13.0% over the same month last year, which contrasted the 2.7% increase observed in the previous month and marked a six-month low.
July 6, 2016
In June, the Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index was stable at the previous month’s 42.7, thus remaining at the lowest level since September 2014.
June 30, 2016
In May, industrial production contracted 4.3% over the same month of the previous year according to the latest data released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC).