Economic Growth in Poland
Poland's economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.7% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 1.9% average for Central & Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Poland GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Poland from 2018 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Poland GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 2.9 |
GDP (USD bn) | 606 | 689 | 695 | 813 | 915 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 532 | 583 | 662 | 752 | 846 |
GDP (PLN bn) | 2,363 | 2,662 | 3,101 | 3,415 | 3,641 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.1 | 12.6 | 16.5 | 10.1 | 6.6 |
GDP growth eases in Q1
Economy loses steam but remains resilient: According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth ebbed to 3.2% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 from 3.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. Still, the expansion was the strongest in Central and Eastern Europe. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth lost steam, cooling to 0.7% in Q1, compared to the previous period's 1.4% increase.
Private and public spending weigh on Q1’s performance: Domestic demand fueled Q1’s deceleration in annual GDP growth. Private consumption rose 2.5% in Q1 which was below Q4’s 3.5% expansion. Moreover, public spending grew at the slowest pace since Q1 2023, increasing 2.0% (Q4 2024: +7.6% yoy). That said, fixed investment rebounded, growing 6.3% in Q1, contrasting the 6.9% contraction in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services growth sped up to 1.1% in the first quarter, which marked the best reading since Q2 2024 (Q4 2024: +0.2% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services rose at a stable pace of 3.5% in Q1.
Panelist insight: ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook: “With economic growth above 3%, Poland continues to outperform other countries across Central and Eastern Europe and other EU economies. We expect economic growth in 2025 to exceed 3%, with the upcoming quarters likely to bring a further strengthening of investment activity. A more balanced structure of domestic demand growth is a positive sign, as the economy relies more on domestic sources of growth than in 2024.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 45 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Polish GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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