Netherlands GDP

Economic growth eases in the first quarter of 2026

Q1 GDP growth revised up from flash estimate: The second Q1 GDP release showed that the Netherlands' economy expanded 0.2% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1, following 0.4% growth in the previous quarter and up from a flash estimate of 0.1% released on 30 April. Q1's reading was the joint weakest since Q3 2023 but above the euro area average of 0.0%. On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 1.4% in Q1, following 1.6% growth in the previous quarter.

Domestic demand drives GDP growth: Relative to the prior period's data, figures in Q1 improved for private consumption (0.3% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +0.0% in Q4) and fixed investment (+0.7% vs +0.1% in Q4). In contrast, the reading softened for government consumption (+0.7% vs +0.8% in Q4), while exports of goods and services swung into contraction (-0.2% vs +0.7% in Q4). Meanwhile, the variation in imports of goods and services was the same as in the prior quarter (+0.1% vs +0.1% in Q4). The main forces behind Q1 growth were a tight labor market, with wage growth continuing to outpace inflation and unemployment remaining low; stronger public investment driven by ongoing expansion in housing-related infrastructure, the energy grid and defense; expansionary fiscal policy and resilient services exports.

External developments key to monitor: Sequential GDP growth should remain broadly stable before ticking up in Q4 2026, as domestic demand continues to offset the external sector’s drag. In 2026 as a whole, Dutch GDP should expand at its weakest pace in three years as the Middle East war and U.S. trade protectionism weigh on the export-oriented economy. The outlook largely depends on the duration of disruptions in the Hormuz Strait, as well as on the potential approval of the MATCH Act by the U.S. Congress; the Act seeks to tighten export controls by the U.S. and its allies on China and would hit Dutch semiconductor giant ASML.

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