Hong Kong Investment

Economic growth picks up in the first quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Hong Kong's GDP expanded 5.9% in annual terms in Q1, following 4.0% growth in the previous quarter and well above market expectations. Q1's reading was the strongest since Q2 2021. The economy likely benefitted in the quarter from strong global demand for AI-related electronics, sustained growth in visitor arrivals and robust cross-boundary financial activities.

Drivers: Relative to the previous quarter's data, figures in Q1 improved for private consumption (+5.0% in annual terms vs +2.5% in Q4), government consumption (+2.9% vs +1.5% in Q4), fixed investment (+17.7% vs +11.7% in Q4) and imports of services (+3.9% vs +3.7% in Q4). In contrast, the reading for exports of services softened in Q1 (+3.5% vs +4.7% in Q4). On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output grew 2.9% in Q1, following a 1.1% expansion in the prior quarter.

Panelist insight: On outlook risks, United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen said: “The AIdriven export and investment upcycle has so far cushioned the economic impact of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. However, a prolonged shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz would pose increasing downside risks. Furthermore, higher energy and transportation costs could feed through to inflation, constraining household consumption, while tighter global financial conditions would likely weigh on asset markets through higher interest rates.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Hong Kong investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Hong Kong investment.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Hong Kong investment projections.

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