GDP in Guatemala

Guatemala GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

Guatemala - GDP

GDP growth slips in Q2

The economy decelerated in Q2 on the heels of a mild Q1. GDP growth came in at a nearly seven-year low, expanding only 2.3% over the same quarter a year earlier, and below the 3.0% year-on-year expansion recorded in Q1. The deceleration came as result of a contraction in exports and significantly weaker fixed investment growth.

Underpinning growth in Q2 was a subdued rise in household spending, which expanded 3.2% (Q1: +3.4% year-on-year) and robust remittance inflows, especially from the United States. Moreover, government spending expanded by a marginal 0.2% as long-promised public spending on education and infrastructure likely came online amid the government’s looser fiscal stance, contrasting Q1’s contraction (-3.1% yoy). Fixed investment growth, on the other hand, slowed sharply to 2.8% in Q2 after a strong showing a quarter earlier (Q1: +6.3% yoy).

The external sector dragged even more heavily on growth in Q2. Behind the poor showing was a 0.8% contraction in exports, which contrasted a solid expansion a quarter earlier (Q1: +5.5% yoy). Imports, on the other hand, remained strong at 4.0% (Q1: +5.0% yoy). Taken together, the external sector’s contribution to overall growth in the quarter was minus 1.9 percentage points (Q1: minus 0.6 percentage points).

Despite unremarkable economic growth in H1, the Central Bank expects GDP growth of between 3.0% and 3.8% this year and between 3.0% and 4.0% next year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 3.7% in 2017, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, our panelists expect GDP growth to clock in at 3.4%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Guatemala - GDP Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.0  3.7  4.2  4.1  3.1  

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Guatemala GDP Chart

Guatemala GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute and FocusEconomics calculations.

Guatemala Facts

Exchange Rate7.350.22 %Oct 19

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