Economic growth ebbs in the second quarter of 2025

GDP growth falls to a three-quarter low: Guatemala's GDP increased 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, following a 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter and marking the slowest expansion since Q3 2024.

Domestic demand and exports lose steam: Relative to the prior quarter's data, figures in Q2 softened for fixed investment (+8.6% in annual terms vs +10.8% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+1.3% vs +2.6% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+5.8% vs +7.1% in Q1). In contrast, readings strengthened for private consumption (+4.3% vs +4.0% in Q1) and government consumption (+7.4% vs +5.8% in Q1).

GDP growth to broadly stabilize through 2026: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to largely match 2024’s rise in both 2025 and 2026, as cooling private spending growth broadly offsets a stronger rise in exports. Factors that could dampen Guatemala’s growth rate next year include U.S. protectionist measures weighing on trade and restrictive immigration policy curbing remittance inflows. Nevertheless, Guatemala’s prudent fiscal and monetary policies should soften the impact of external risks on GDP growth.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Guatemalan GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Guatemalan GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Guatemalan GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.