Guatemala: Economic growth ebbs in the second quarter of 2025
GDP growth falls to a three-quarter low: Guatemala’s GDP increased 3.9% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, following a 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter and marking the slowest expansion since Q3 2024.
Domestic demand and exports lose steam: Relative to the prior quarter’s data, figures in Q2 softened for fixed investment (+8.6% in annual terms vs +10.8% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+1.3% vs +2.6% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+5.8% vs +7.1% in Q1). In contrast, readings strengthened for private consumption (+4.3% vs +4.0% in Q1) and government consumption (+7.4% vs +5.8% in Q1).
GDP growth to broadly stabilize through 2026: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to largely match 2024’s rise in both 2025 and 2026, as cooling private spending growth broadly offsets a stronger rise in exports. Factors that could dampen Guatemala’s growth rate next year include U.S. protectionist measures weighing on trade and restrictive immigration policy curbing remittance inflows. Nevertheless, Guatemala’s prudent fiscal and monetary policies should soften the impact of external risks on GDP growth.