Economic Growth in Estonia
Estonia's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.9% in the decade leading to 2022, significantly above the Euro Area's average of 1.4%. However in 2022, the real GDP growth was -0.5%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Estonia GDP Chart
Estonia GDP Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.8 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 7.2 | -0.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 30.6 | 31.3 | 31.3 | 36.8 | 37.9 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 25.9 | 28.0 | 27.4 | 31.2 | 36.0 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.8 | 7.8 | -1.9 | 13.6 | 15.5 |
GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2022 in Q3
GDP declined at a quicker pace of 3.9% year on year in the third quarter, below the 2.9% contraction seen in the second quarter. Q3's reading marked the worst reading since Q4 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP declined 1.3% in Q3, following the previous quarter's 0.6% fall. Q3's quarter-on-quarter decline marked the largest decrease since Q4 2022.
Q3’s deterioration stemmed largely from an abysmal performance of the external sector, coupled with prolonged malaise in private spending and weaker public consumption. Household spending declined at a milder rate of 2.4% year on year in Q3 compared to a 3.0% contraction in Q2. Tight monetary conditions and elevated inflation likely ate into household budgets. Miscellaneous goods, clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture saw the largest drops in spending. Additionally, public spending dropped at the sharpest pace since Q2 2023, contracting 0.6% (Q2: +1.8% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment bounced back, growing 9.8% in Q3, contrasting the 18.7% decrease logged in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the external sector weighed heavily on the overall figure against a backdrop of muted EU demand: Exports of goods and services contracted 12.1% in Q3, marking the worst reading since Q2 2020 (Q2: -5.4% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services dropped at a slower rate of 6.0% in Q3 (Q2: -8.4% yoy).
Mihkel Nestor, analyst at SEB, commented on the outlook: “Estonia’s export-dependent economy has been hard hit by low demand in the Nordic countries, but a broad-based decline in domestic demand is now also suppressing growth. […] The low tide in foreign trade is especially troublesome for Estonia’s manufacturing sector, which exports most of its output. […] A quick turnaround seems unlikely as new orders dwindle. Being the biggest economic sector in terms of value added and employment, its downturn is affecting many other parts of the economy. A notable recovery of exports will not happen before 2025.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Estonian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Estonian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Estonian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Estonian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
GDP rebounded, increasing 2.0% year on year in the fourth quarter, contrasting the 0.2% contraction logged in the third quarter....
-
New Zealand: Economy drops at a more moderate pace in Q4
GDP dropped at a slower rate of 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the fourth quarter, above the... -
Argentina: GDP slides at a more pronounced pace in Q4
GDP contracted at a steeper pace of 1.4% year on year in the fourth quarter, below the 0.8% contraction logged... -
Norway: Economic activity stagnates in January
The Norwegian economy started 2024 on weaker footing; total GDP flatlined in January in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms, slowing from... -
Chile: Economic growth slows in Q4
GDP growth moderated to 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the final quarter of 2023, from 0.8% in... -
Belgium: Economic growth moderates in the fourth quarter
GDP growth waned to 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the fourth quarter, from 0.4% in the third... -
United Kingdom: Economic activity speeds up in January
GDP grew 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in January, which contrasted December’s 0.1% decrease and was in line with...