Dominican Republic Inflation

Inflation rises further above target range in June

Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 5.7% in annual terms in June, following a 5.3% increase in the previous month. June's reading was the strongest since March 2023 and edged further above the Central Bank’s 3.0–5.0% target range. Relative to the prior month's data, there were higher price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+7.0% on a year-on-year basis vs +6.6% in May) and transport (+8.4% vs +7.5% in May). In contrast, there were reduced price pressures for housing and utilities (+2.5% vs +2.6% in May) and recreation and culture (+2.2% vs +2.7% in May). Meanwhile, core consumer prices increased 5.0% in annual terms in June, following a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Lastly, consumer prices were up 0.51% in June in month-on-month terms, following a 0.31% increase in the prior month.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to ease from current levels in the second half of 2026, though the reescalation of the U.S.–Iran war and the development of El Niño weather conditions pose upside risks to fuel and food prices. In 2026 as a whole, price pressures are set to average within the Central Bank’s target range but at one of the strongest levels in the past decade and above the Central America and Caribbean aggregate, fanned by a weaker Dominican peso, lower interest rates and stronger growth in domestic demand. That said, many panelists see full-year inflation exceeding the 5.0% target ceiling.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Dominican inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Dominican inflation.

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