Retail Sales in China
China - Retail Sales
Annual retail sales growth eases to six-month low in June, but underlying momentum is solid
Retail sales expanded 12.1% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a deterioration from May's 12.4% increase. June's result marked the worst reading since December 2020, although this was largely due to the base effect.
On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, which was below May’s 0.8% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend improved sizably, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at plus 13.4% in June, up from May's 12.2% reading.
June’s data shows consumer spending was resilient at the end of Q2, notwithstanding the flare-up of Covid-19 cases in Guangdong province. While year-on-year retail sales growth will moderate in H2, underlying consumer spending momentum (stripping out base effects) should be healthy as the labor market improves and the vaccine rollout accelerates.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 14.7% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 7.8%.
China - Retail Sales Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales (annual variation in %) | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 8.1 |
China Retail Sales Chart
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and FocusEconomics calculations.
China Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 3.17 | -0.40 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 6.96 | -0.19 % | Jan 01 |
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House prices in 70 large- and medium-sized cities increased 0.5% in June in month-on-month terms according to a weighted average index calculated by Refinitiv from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
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China: Annual retail sales growth eases to six-month low in June, but underlying momentum is solid
July 15, 2021
Retail sales expanded 12.1% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a deterioration from May's 12.4% increase.
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China: Industrial output records lowest expansion since December 2020 in June
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Industrial production grew 8.3% year-on-year in June (May: +8.8% yoy).
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Nominal urban fixed asset investment grew 12.6% in year-to-date terms in June, which followed May's 15.4% increase.
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July 15, 2021
GDP growth lost momentum in the second quarter, falling to 7.9% year-on-year from 18.3% in the first quarter.
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