Retail Sales in China

China Retail Sales | Economic News & Forecasts

China - Retail Sales

Annual retail sales growth eases to six-month low in June, but underlying momentum is solid

Retail sales expanded 12.1% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a deterioration from May's 12.4% increase. June's result marked the worst reading since December 2020, although this was largely due to the base effect.

On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 0.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms in June, which was below May’s 0.8% expansion. Meanwhile, the trend improved sizably, with the annual average growth of retail sales coming in at plus 13.4% in June, up from May's 12.2% reading.

June’s data shows consumer spending was resilient at the end of Q2, notwithstanding the flare-up of Covid-19 cases in Guangdong province. While year-on-year retail sales growth will moderate in H2, underlying consumer spending momentum (stripping out base effects) should be healthy as the labor market improves and the vaccine rollout accelerates.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect retail sales to increase 14.7% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, the panel foresees retail sales expanding 7.8%.

China - Retail Sales Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)10.7  10.4  10.3  9.0  8.1  

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China Retail Sales Chart

China Retail
Note: Annual variation of retail sales in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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