Economic Growth in Canada
Canada experienced stable but moderate GDP growth from 2013 to 2022. The economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. Post-pandemic recovery in 2021-2022 was supported by fiscal stimulus and rebounding global demand.
The Canadian economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.8% in the decade to 2022, in line with the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 3.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Canada GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.9 | -5.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,743 | 1,656 | 2,022 | 2,190 | 2,174 |
GDP (CAD bn) | 2,314 | 2,221 | 2,536 | 2,851 | 2,934 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.5 | -4.0 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 2.9 |
Economy records slowest increase since Q4 2023 in Q3
GDP reading: GDP expanded 1.0% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR) terms in Q3, down from 2.2% in Q2 and marking the slowest expansion since Q4 2023. In the third quarter stronger public and private spending were partially offset by slower non-farm inventory accumulation, weaker business investment and lower exports. On an annual basis, economic growth picked up to 1.5% in Q3 from the previous period's 1.1% growth.
Drivers: Looking at expenditure components, private consumption growth picked up to 3.5% SAAR in the third quarter, which marked the best reading since Q1 2023 (Q2: +0.9% SAAR). Public spending improved to a 4.5% increase in Q3 (Q2: +3.8% SAAR). Fixed investment contracted 1.9% in Q3, marking the worst result since Q4 2023 (Q2: +4.2% SAAR). Exports of goods and services slid at a slower pace of 1.1% in Q3 (Q2: -5.4% SAAR). In addition, imports of goods and services contracted at a milder pace of 0.4% in Q3 (Q2: -0.8% SAAR). As a result, the external sector subtracted from economic activity in Q3.
GDP outlook: Preliminary data shows a 0.1% monthly rise in October GDP, driven by gains in real estate, transportation, and retail that were partly offset by declines in construction and mining. This is in line with our Consensus for ongoing—albeit mild—economic growth over Q4 as a whole.
Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, TD Economics’ James Orlando said: “Even though the headline print doesn't look encouraging, the underlying fundamentals remain strong. The lifeblood of the economy is the Canadian consumer, and they have been carrying the weight over 2024. As interest rates continue to fall alongside a wave of government stimulus over the coming months, we are looking for consumer spending to keep lifting GDP through at least the first half of 2025.” Goldman Sachs’ analysts said: “The composition of today’s GDP print was solid and upward GDP revisions suggest activity in 2021-2023 was somewhat stronger than previously reported, but weak headline GDP growth in both the Q3 and October flash prints imply that the Canadian economy is still growing below potential.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 43 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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