Belgium GDP

Economic growth accelerates in the first quarter of 2026

Belgium’s GDP growth surpasses that of the euro area: According to a flash GDP release, Belgium's economy grew 0.2% on a calendar- and seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1, following a 0.1% expansion in the prior quarter and above the euro area’s pace for the first time since Q2 2025. Moreover, Q1's reading was the strongest in a year and matched market expectations. In calendar- and seasonally-adjusted annual terms, economic output increased 0.8% in Q1, following a 0.9% expansion in the prior quarter.

Improvements recorded across the board: Relative to the prior period's data, figures in Q1 improved for the industrial sector (-0.1% in calendar- and seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs -0.7% in Q4), the construction sector (+0.4% vs -0.1% in Q4) and the services sector (+0.3% vs +0.2% in Q4).

Iran war prompts GDP growth to deviate from recent norm: Our Consensus forecast for Belgium’s GDP growth in 2026 has deteriorated again over the past month as the U.S.-Iran war nears the three-month mark. Growth this year is now seen at its lowest rate since 2020 and roughly half a percentage point less than before the war, when the pace of economic expansion was expected to stay close to 1.0%, the norm in recent years. Consumer spending growth is expected to hit a six-year low amid higher energy prices, softer wage indexation, higher excise taxes and reduced benefits, and exports are seen falling at a sharper pace than in 2025, remaining in a slump for the fourth straight year; fossil fuels account for over 70% of Belgium’s energy mix, and refined hydrocarbons are a key export. That said, the overall impact of the global energy crisis extends much deeper, as Belgium’s economy is about 25% more energy-intensive than the euro area on average, far more than neighboring Netherlands, Germany and France.

Panelist insight: EIU analysts commented on this year’s GDP outlook: “We expect the economy to expand by 0.9% in 2026, slightly slower than in 2025. Partial automatic wage indexation will continue to offer some support to private spending, and EU-driven investment funds (Belgium's allocation from the bloc's recovery fund is almost €6bn) and reduced trade uncertainty will aid investment growth. However, inflation will remain uncomfortably high, sustained by rising energy prices due to the war in Iran. This will eat into real incomes. Meanwhile, higher excise taxes and lower benefits will also diminish the effect of wage increases.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Belgian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Belgian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Belgian GDP projections.

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