United States Retail June 2021

United States

United States: Retail sales rebound in June

July 16, 2021

Retail sales increased 0.6% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in June (May: -1.7% mom). The figure was largely due to a strong increase in gasoline sales in June, while sales at electronic and appliances, health and personal care, and general merchandise stores all rebounded robustly over the previous month.

On an annual basis, retail sales rose at a more moderate pace of 18.0% in June (May: +27.6% yoy). Meanwhile, annual average retail sales growth rose to 13.1% in June (May: +11.7%). This signals an improving trend in the retail trade sector.

Commenting on June’s print, Katherine Judge, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets, stated:

“The revisions to the May data combined with price effects in some categories should limit the upside to Q2 GDP forecasts from this print, although it is still consistent with solid growth in goods consumption in Q2. A lack of labor threatens to stretch out the recovery in consumption ahead, particularly for services that lack supply to meet demand. Still, strong wage gains, pent-up demand, and excess savings from fiscal stimulus should continue to fuel demand for services, masking an expected weaker showing from goods spending ahead.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 7.7% in 2021, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the panel sees private consumption increasing 4.3%.


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United States Retail Chart

United States Retail June 2021

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation of nominal retail sales in %.
Source: United States Census Bureau.

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