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United States Retail September 2022

United States: Retail sales deteriorate in September

Nominal retail sales were flat month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in September (August: +0.4% mom), undershooting market expectations. September’s reading reflected a deterioration in sales of vehicles, furniture and electronics offsetting growth in sales of food and healthcare. Given month-on-month inflation of 0.4% in September, real retail sales in the month likely contracted.

On an annual basis, retail sales increased 8.2% in September, which was below August’s 9.4% expansion and marked the worst result since April. Meanwhile, annual average retail sales growth fell to 11.7% in September (August: +12.2%). This signals a worsening trend in the retail trade sector.

On the implications of the reading, TD Economics’ Maria Solovieva said:

“With the final month’s sales, the third quarter gained 2.6% (annualized) – higher than we expected. However, removing price effects, this translates into 2.0% quarter-on-quarter annualized loss. As a result, we now expect personal consumer expenditures to come in just below 1% (annualized) in Q3.”

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