United Kingdom: Labor market remains resilient midway through Q4
According to the ONS, in August–October the unemployment rate registered 3.7%. This was up from 3.6% in the previous rolling quarter but still below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, employment continued to increase in November and job vacancies were at historically high levels, despite declining in the three months to November. Real wages declined again due to double-digit inflation, although nominal private sector pay growth was the highest recorded outside the pandemic period.
Looking ahead, the labor market is set to lose steam as economic momentum weakens, with December PMI data suggesting employment fell in the month. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise above 4% next year.