UK Economic Forecast
June 25, 2019The economy has likely lost momentum in the second quarter, after Brexit stockpiling flattered the first-quarter GDP reading. Economic activity contracted sharply in April, albeit in part due to a temporary shutdown at car manufacturing plants. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI dived into contractionary territory in May for the first time in several years on lower export orders. On the flipside, the unemployment rate is at a multi-decade low, while wage growth is comfortably outpacing inflation, which is feeding through to solid retail sales. On the political front, the race to choose a new Conservative Party leader—and by extension the next prime minister—continues. Boris Johnson, who has advocated leaving the EU on 31 October with or without a deal, remains the clear favorite. However, all options remain on the table, including a general election, second referendum, leaving the EU with a deal and not leaving at all.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThis year, muted business investment, coupled with ebbing momentum in key trading partners such as the EU and U.S., will restrain the economy. However, the robust labor market should support private consumption, while a more expansionary fiscal stance should also buttress the economy. The highly uncertain outcome of Brexit remains the key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 1.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 1.4%.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||0.84||-3.04 %||Jul 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.25||-0.35 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||7,510||-0.26 %||Jul 11|
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United Kingdom Economic News
United Kingdom: Boris Johnson set to become PM: What does this mean for Brexit and the British economy?
July 22, 2019
Boris Johnson is likely to become Conservative leader—and by extension prime minister—in the coming days.
July 17, 2019
Consumer prices were flat month-on-month in June, down from May’s 0.3% rise, as higher prices for furniture, household equipment and maintenance were offset by lower prices for clothing and footwear, and recreation and culture.
July 16, 2019
In the March-May period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.8%, while nominal earnings growth excluding bonuses picked up to 3.6% from 3.4% in the prior rolling quarter.
July 10, 2019
Industrial production increased 1.4% in May over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, contrasting April’s revised 2.9% decline (previously reported: -2.7% month-on-month).
United Kingdom: The economy recoups ground in May on stronger car production, but momentum is still tepid
July 10, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity rose 0.3% in May over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting April’s 0.4% decline and beating market expectations of 0.1% growth.