UK Economic Forecast
February 27, 2018Recent developments paint a nuanced economic picture. Q4 GDP growth was recently revised down, with solid public investment partially offset by timid private consumption and a negative contribution from the external sector. In addition, the manufacturing and services PMIs dipped in January on lower new orders. Encouragingly, in Q4 employment and nominal earnings growth increased, while productivity notched a second consecutive robust expansion. In addition, cumulative borrowing in the current financial year-to-date is down markedly from 2016/17, leaving the government on course to meet the 2.0% structural deficit target for 2020/21. On 22 February, the Brexit sub-committee met to agree a negotiating position which the Prime Minister should formally announce this week, although serious disagreements within the government remain. 62 Conservative MPs—enough to trigger a leadership contest—recently wrote a letter to the PM demanding a clean break from the EU and the ability to diverge from the bloc’s regulations after departure.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThis year the economy will likely lose momentum as private consumption growth slows and fixed investment is curtailed by Brexit uncertainty. Public spending will provide little support, with the government intent on reducing the deficit. However, a robust global economy and loose monetary policy should provide some support. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.5% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2019.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.43||-3.04 %||Mar 15|
|Exchange Rate||1.39||-0.35 %||Mar 15|
|Stock Market||7,140||-0.26 %||Mar 15|
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United Kingdom Economic News
March 9, 2018
Industrial production rose 1.3% in January over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, contrasting December’s 1.3% drop but slightly undershooting analysts’ expectations.
March 5, 2018
Growth in the UK services sector accelerated in February, with the IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increasing from 53.0 in January to 54.5, marking the highest reading in four months.
March 1, 2018
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom fell 0.3% in February compared to the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, contrasting January’s revised 0.8% increase (previously reported: +0.6% mom).
February 28, 2018
The GfK NOP consumer confidence indicator dipped from minus 9 points in January to minus 10 points in February.
February 22, 2018
The UK economy grew at a slower pace than initially thought in the final quarter of 2017, according to comprehensive data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 22 February.