UK Economic Forecast
September 26, 2017Incoming data for Q3 is mixed. On the positive side, the manufacturing sector rebounded in July, and a rise in the manufacturing PMI in August signals an acceleration in the expansion of output. A healthy labor market propelled the unemployment rate to another multi-decade low in July amid signs of a mild recovery in real wage growth. Consumer sentiment edged up in August, indicating brighter prospects for private consumption. On the downside, growth in total industrial production fell in July. In August, the housing market cooled further and the services PMI dropped. Brexit uncertainty continues to deter investment, and Prime Minister May’s speech on 22 September failed to offer sufficient clarity on the UK’s desired trading relationship with the EU. Hours after the speech, Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating by a notch to Aa2 from Aa1 and changed the outlook from negative to stable, citing mounting policy challenges around the complexity of Brexit negotiations.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.37||-2.00 %||Oct 16|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||-0.27 %||Oct 16|
|Stock Market||7,527||-0.11 %||Oct 16|
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United Kingdom Economic Growth
September 26, 2017The economy is expected to slow this year as rising inflation erodes consumers’ purchasing power. It is also expected to slow next year as prolonged Brexit uncertainties continue to deter investors. However, the Bank of England’s ultra-loose monetary policy stance and resilient global demand should cushion the slowdown. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
United Kingdom Economic News
October 10, 2017
Industrial production rose 0.2% in August month-on-month, down from July’s revised 0.3% rise (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month) and in line with analysts’ expectations.
October 5, 2017
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) picked up from 53.2 in August to 53.6 in September.
September 29, 2017
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom rose 0.2% in September compared to the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, contrasting August’s 0.1% decline.
September 29, 2017
The GfK NOP consumer confidence indicator edged up from to minus 10 points in August to minus 9 points in September, marking the second consecutive monthly improvement.
September 14, 2017
At its meeting which ended on 13 September, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) voted by a seven to two majority to leave the bank rate at 0.25%, where it has been since August of last year.