UK Economic Forecast
November 21, 2017The economy continues to send mixed signals in the second half of the year. Recent data shows that growth in Q3 beat expectations, thanks to a resilient service sector and a jump in industrial production. In addition, both the services and manufacturing PMIs moved further into positive territory in October, while the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low in the third quarter. However, over the same period employment fell and the inactivity rate rose compared to Q2, hinting at a slight softening in a labor market which had remained rock-solid despite Brexit uncertainty. Growth has also lagged significantly behind the EU average since the start of the year, and with continuing negative real wage growth, private consumption is being fueled by consumers running down their savings. On the Brexit front, the UK government has yet to clarify its position on a financial settlement with the EU. Progress on this contentious issue must come before an EU summit on 14/15 December, if the EU-27 are to agree to move on swiftly to trade negotiations.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthGrowth is likely to slow next year, as private consumption growth dips and fixed investment is dampened by pervasive uncertainty generated by Brexit. However, a stronger external sector and resilient global demand should cushion the slowdown. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.4% in 2019.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.27||-3.04 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||1.34||-0.35 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||7,348||-0.26 %||Dec 06|
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
United Kingdom Economic News
December 12, 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in November over the previous month, up from October’s 0.1% uptick and slightly overshooting analysts’ expectations of a 0.2% increase.
December 8, 2017
Industrial production was flat in October on a month-on-month basis, down from September’s 0.7% uptick and matching analysts’ expectations.
November 30, 2017
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom rose 0.1% in November compared to the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, down from October’s 0.2% increase.
November 30, 2017
The GfK NOP consumer confidence indicator edged down from minus 10 points in October to minus 12 points in November.
November 23, 2017
The British economy picked up pace slightly in the third quarter of the year, according to comprehensive data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 23 November.