UK Economic Forecast
June 26, 2018The economy appears to have regained some momentum in the second quarter following a weak first quarter, but growth is still mediocre at best. Both the manufacturing and services PMIs picked up in May, although weak new orders growth and gloomier business sentiment bode poorly for the evolution of the services PMI going forward. In addition, consumer sentiment improved in the same month, while in February–April employment continued to surge. On the downside, most new jobs were part-time, with total hours worked declining slightly. In addition, the tight labor market is still not feeding through to significantly higher pay—likely driven by weak productivity. On the political front, Brexit negotiations are making little headway on the key sticking point of the Irish border ahead of an important EU summit at the end of June. This comes against a backdrop of disagreement in parliament over MPs’ role in the Brexit process.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthLooking ahead, growth will remain muted, with fixed investment dampened by Brexit uncertainty and export growth slowing after the boost provided last year by the weaker pound. However, a slight pick-up in government spending and a loose monetary stance should support the economy. Our panelists estimate GDP growth of 1.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2019.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.26||-3.04 %||Jul 17|
|Exchange Rate||1.31||-0.35 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||7,626||-0.26 %||Jul 17|
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United Kingdom Economic News
United Kingdom: Brexit strategy agreed, but proposals will struggle for support at home and in the EU
July 18, 2018
On 12 July, the government set out a White Paper on the future UK-EU relationship, which it hopes will form the basis of negotiations over the Withdrawal Treaty that are supposed to conclude by October.
July 18, 2018
Consumer prices were unchanged in June over the previous month, down from May’s 0.4% rise.
July 17, 2018
The unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 4.2% in the March-May period, where it has been for four consecutive rolling quarters.
July 10, 2018
Industrial production fell 0.4% in May over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, up slightly from April’s revised 1.0% decline (previously reported: -0.8% month-on-month).
July 10, 2018
According to new monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the economy expanded 0.3% in May over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms.