UK Economic Forecast
October 27, 2020The economy likely recovered some lost ground in Q3 following Q2’s record contraction. GDP rose solidly in July and August, while retail sales were robust throughout the quarter. However, PMI data suggests the recovery lost momentum in September and early in Q4, due to the snap-back of restrictions at home and abroad. In response to tougher domestic Covid-19 measures, the government has recently ramped up fiscal support, announcing a revamped version of the furlough scheme for firms forced to close temporarily, in addition to a previously announced pledge to pay part of the wages of employees working less than normal hours. However, the support will likely be unable to prevent a sharp rise in unemployment in the coming months. On Brexit, talks with the EU have intensified in recent days. Reaching a trade deal will be vital to minimizing economic damage once the transition period ends on 31 December.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThe economy should recover next year from this year’s collapse, supported by the likely easing impact of Covid-19, and fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, Brexit disruption as the UK adjusts to more limited access to the EU market could constrain momentum somewhat. A potentially messy divorce from the EU and prolonged social distancing measures pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 6.0% in 2021, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2022.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||0.83||-3.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||-0.35 %||Jan 01|
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United Kingdom Economic News
United Kingdom: BoE keeps rates and total stock of asset purchases unchanged in May, but reduces pace of bond buying
May 6, 2021
At its meeting ending on 5 May, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained the bank rate at the record low of 0.10%, where it has been since March 2020.
April 30, 2021
According to the Nationwide Building Society, house prices in the United Kingdom rose 2.1% month-on-month in April, contrasting March’s 0.3% contraction.
April 23, 2021
Consumer confidence came in at minus 15.0 in April, up from March's minus 16.0.
April 23, 2021
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 56.3 in March to 60.1 in April, an over six-year high.
April 21, 2021
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.27% in March over the previous month, accelerating from February's 0.09% increase.