UK Economic Forecast
April 30, 2019The economy likely performed better than previously anticipated in Q1, although this was partly due to a favorable base effect and firms stockpiling in preparation for a potential no-deal Brexit at end-March. Solid GDP growth in January and February was supported by manufacturing and construction. Moreover, in December-February the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low, while wage growth was robust. This was likely behind buoyant retail sales in the first quarter, despite anemic consumer confidence. However, the economy is likely losing momentum so far in Q2 as the boost from stockbuilding unwinds. On the political front, the EU recently agreed to delay Brexit until 31 October after MPs failed to agree on a way forward. A resolution to the impasse does not appear imminent, and the ongoing uncertainty will continue to hamper business confidence and investment going forward.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthGrowth this year will be held back by muted business investment and ebbing momentum in key trading partners such as the EU and U.S. However, the strong labor market should prop up private consumption, while the fiscal stance will turn more supportive. The highly uncertain outcome of Brexit remains the key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 1.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 1.4%.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.10||-3.04 %||May 13|
|Exchange Rate||1.30||-0.35 %||May 13|
|Stock Market||7,164||-0.26 %||May 13|
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United Kingdom Economic News
May 14, 2019
In the January-March period, the unemployment rate fell to a new multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record.
May 10, 2019
Growth accelerated to 0.5% in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1 2019 (Q4 2018: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter), according to preliminary data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
May 10, 2019
Industrial production rose 0.7% in March over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, following February’s 0.6% increase.
United Kingdom: Services PMI edges back into positive territory in April, manufacturing PMI dips as stockpiling eases
May 3, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from a multi-year low of 48.9 in March to 50.4 in April.
May 2, 2019
At its meeting ending on 1 May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England (BoE) voted unanimously to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.75%.