UK Economic Forecast
November 20, 2018The economy grew strongly in the third quarter according to recent figures, supported by private consumption, public spending and net exports. Moreover, real earnings growth accelerated notably, as the tight labor market fed wage pressures. Employment growth, however, softened in quarter-on-quarter terms, possibly on rising Brexit uncertainty. Looking to Q4, signs are less positive. In October, both the services and manufacturing PMIs fell, while annual retail sales growth slowed considerably and consumer sentiment worsened. On the fiscal front, the government recently presented an expansionary budget, which should support growth next year thanks to higher spending and tax cuts. In mid-November, the UK and EU reached a preliminary agreement on Brexit withdrawal terms. Its ratification would support business confidence and investment, although there are serious doubts over whether the UK parliament will give the green light to the deal as it currently stands.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthGrowth should be fueled next year by the looser fiscal stance and higher wages boosting private consumption. However, private fixed investment will likely remain subdued until there is greater clarity on the Brexit front. A failure to seal a withdrawal deal with the EU before the UK departs the bloc in March 2019 is the key downside risk. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 1.5% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage point from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% again in 2020.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||1.20||-3.04 %||Dec 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.25||-0.35 %||Dec 11|
|Stock Market||6,807||-0.26 %||Dec 11|
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United Kingdom Economic News
December 11, 2018
In the August-October period the unemployment rate remained at a near multi-decade low of 4.1%.
December 10, 2018
According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity rose 0.1% in October over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from September’s flat reading.
December 10, 2018
Industrial production decreased 0.6% in October over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, down from September’s flat reading.
December 5, 2018
Growth in the UK services sector declined notably in November, with the IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) droppng from 52.2 in October to 50.4, markedly undershooting analysts’ expectations.
November 30, 2018
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom increased 0.3% in November compared to the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, up from October’s flat reading.