UK Economic Forecast
June 2, 2020The economy shrank at the sharpest pace since the global financial crisis in Q1, weighed on by lower consumption, investment and exports amid social distancing restrictions. The downturn in Q2 will be significantly steeper as the full impact of the national lockdown is felt. In April, retail sales plummeted at a record rate, employment and wages fell, and jobless claims increased roughly 70% to over 2 million. However, the economy now appears to have bottomed out, as both the manufacturing and services PMIs picked up somewhat in May, despite languishing deep in contractionary territory. Moreover, the extension of the wage subsidy scheme through October will prevent a more marked rise in unemployment, while the gradual easing of lockdown measures—non-essential stores are set to reopen in England from 15 June for instance—should support a recovery in domestic economic activity.
United Kingdom Economic GrowthThe economy will shrink markedly this year due to the impact of Covid-19 on private consumption, investment and exports, notwithstanding huge fiscal and monetary stimulus. A possible second wave of infections as the lockdown is lifted is a key risk to the outlook, while uncertainty over Brexit talks further clouds prospects. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 7.6% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 5.9% in 2021.
United Kingdom Economy Data
5 years of United Kingdom economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||0.83||-3.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||-0.35 %||Jan 01|
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
United Kingdom Economic News
July 1, 2020
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom fell 1.4% month-on-month in June, coming after May’s 1.7% decline.
June 23, 2020
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 29.0 in May to 47.0 in June, but remained in contractionary territory.
June 19, 2020
The consumer confidence index rose to 30 in June from May's 34.
June 18, 2020
At its meeting ending on 17 June, the Bank of England (BoE) left the policy rate at a record low of 0.10%.
June 17, 2020
Consumer prices were flat in May over the previous month, contrasting the 0.2% fall recorded in April.