UAE: UAE oil output increases further month on month in May
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 103.84 per barrel in May, up 1.0% from April. On 29 May, the commodity traded at USD 92.03 per barrel, down 19.4% from 30 April.
Turning to production, the UAE’s oil output rose to 2.11 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May from 2.02 mbpd in April, as the country ramped up exports via the Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah and snuck shipments through the Gulf on ships that had switched off their location trackers. Still, UAE oil output remained down roughly 30% year on year.
Outlook: The tentative U.S.-Iran agreement in June to reopen the Hormuz Strait—which was largely expected by analysts—means UAE oil production should continue to recover toward pre-war levels over the coming months. That said, a final peace deal is still pending, and with mines still lacing the Strait, the rebound will likely be gradual.
In 2027, oil production should increase more substantially as Hormuz Strait trade disruptions are overcome and the UAE takes advantage of its recent exit from the OPEC+ cartel; in June, the International Energy Organization, an intergovernmental body that helps to coordinate global energy policy, said it projects UAE oil output to reach 5.2 mbpd in 2027.