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Turkey Inflation January 2023

Turkey: Inflation drops to lowest level since February 2022 in January

Inflation dropped to 57.7% in January below Decembers 64.3%. January’s result marked the weakest inflation rate since February 2022, but surprised markets on the upside. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and transportation rose at a slower rate in January.

Annual average inflation edged up to 72.4% in January (December: 72.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 53.0% in January, from Decembers 51.9%.

Finally, consumer prices increased 6.65% in January over the previous month, accelerating from December’s 1.18% rise. January’s jump was the highest reading since April 2022.

Commenting on the release, Muhammet Mercan, chief economist at ING, stated:

“Overall, annual inflation maintained its downtrend in January as expected, and is likely to decline further until May mainly due to strong base effects, albeit depending on the currency stability. However, given deeply negative real interest rates, further disinflation would be quite challenging, while risks to the outlook this year are on the upside given the significant deterioration in pricing behaviour, higher trend inflation and the still elevated level of cost-push pressures.”

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