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Turkey Industrial production July 2021

Turkey: Industrial output records lowest expansion since September 2020 in July

Industrial production grew 8.7% year-on-year in July (June: +24.1% yoy). The figure marked the worst reading since September 2020, and came in markedly below market analysts’ expectations. Looking at the details of the release, mining and quarrying production increased at a slower pace in July, while manufacturing output also lost momentum.

Meanwhile, the trend improved, with the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at plus 17.0% in July, up from June’s 16.7%.

On a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production contracted 4.2% in July (June: +2.2% mom). This suggests that underlying momentum waned at the outset of the third quarter.

Analysts at Garanti-BBVA added:

“July’s weaker than expected [industrial production] could have stemmed from supply shortages, deepening cost-push factors and side effects of the long religious holiday. As our nowcast indicates, still growing domestic demand and strong exports might result in a mild positive quarterly growth rate in Q3. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.0%, with risks still on the upside; though today’s data might partially eliminate those risks, which will be clearer with August data.”

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