Thailand: Trade surplus falls in June

In June, the trade balance recorded a USD 0.2 billion surplus, which was below both the USD 1.7 billion surplus observed in the same month last year and the record USD 2.4 billion surplus seen in the previous month. The 12-month moving sum of trade recorded a USD 3.2 billion surplus in June, which followed the USD 4.7 billion surplus seen in the previous month.

Exports in June dropped 7.9% over the same month last year, which was a deterioration over the 5.0% decrease seen in the previous month. Moreover, June’s result marked the largest contraction since November 2011. Imports fell 0.2% year-on-year, which was a notable improvement from the 20.0% drop seen in May.

In 2015, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to increase 1.6% (USD 229.8 billion) and they see the trade surplus reaching USD 17.9 billion. For 2016, panelists expect export growth to accelerate to 4.8% (USD 240.9 billion) and the surplus to narrow to USD 17.1 billion.