A beach town in Thailand

Thailand GDP Q1 2019

Thailand: Economic growth moderates to near five-year low in Q1

Economic growth decelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2019, down from the 3.6% annual expansion logged in Q4 last year and the lowest reading in nearly half a decade. Growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, edged up to 1.0% in Q1, from Q4’s 0.9%.

Household expenditure growth eased to 4.6% (Q4: +5.4% year-on-year) despite still-muted inflationary pressure, growing incomes, low unemployment and personal credit growth. Fixed investment growth also eased to 3.2% in the opening quarter of 2019, from Q4 2018’s 4.2% expansion, owing to weaker growth in construction and machinery investment. Government expenditure, meanwhile, expanded 3.3% in Q1 (Q4: +1.4% yoy) on increased wages and social transfers in the run-up to national elections.

The external sector had a poor showing in the first quarter, with both exports and imports of goods and services falling. Exports of goods and services contracted 4.9%, swinging from a 0.7% expansion in the prior quarter, likely due to ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services dropped 0.2%, contrasting a 5.7% increase in Q4. This was chiefly due to a drop in goods imports as services imports rose robustly.

Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue growing at a robust, albeit more moderate, pace. Government expenditure should provide some stimulus, while private consumption should remain resilient despite high household indebtedness. Key downside risks stem from a more hostile external environment, notably higher trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest