Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

December 20, 2019

The economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the third quarter, boosted by both fixed investment and government consumption swinging from contraction to expansion. However, private consumption growth moderated, likely on the back of a recent increase in the unemployment rate and weak consumer confidence. On the external front, export growth outstripped import growth, boosting overall growth. Turning to the fourth quarter, the economy seems to be maintaining steady momentum, as suggested by a stabilization of consumer confidence in the quarter, which was likely in part due to higher housing prices and continued low interest rates. However, output from the manufacturing sector likely declined in Q4, as suggested by both PMI and sector-specific business confidence data.

Sweden Economic Growth

Next year, economic growth seems set to remain soft, dragged on by sluggish export growth and an expected increase in the unemployment rate. However, still-accommodative monetary policy and slightly expansionary fiscal policy should both support growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 1.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2021.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.15-4.79 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate9.36-0.20 %Jan 01

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