Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

April 30, 2019

The economy likely grew at a softer pace in the first quarter of this year, following the fourth quarter’s robust showing. Industrial production was subdued in January and February, while the manufacturing PMI was broadly stable in March, but rounded out a weaker average reading for the quarter. Meanwhile, the services sector appears to have lost momentum at the end of Q1, as reflected in a fall in the services PMI. Nevertheless, retail sales were upbeat in January and February, supported by low unemployment. Turning to Q2, leading data shows consumer confidence remained downbeat in April. In other news, on 10 April the Ministry of Finance announced amendments to this year’s budget. The reforms totaled SEK 4.5 billion in additional expenditure and included new commitments to tackle climate change, reduce employer tax contributions and hire more teaching assistants in schools.

Sweden Economic Growth

Economic growth is seen cooling this year. Slowing residential investment and a weaker external sector due to a sluggish eurozone are projected to weigh on the economy. That said, stronger fiscal stimulus and solid household spending, supported by a healthy labor market, should buoy growth. Elevated household debt remains a key downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 1.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.

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Sweden Facts

Bond Yield0.21-4.79 %May 13
Exchange Rate9.64-0.20 %May 13
Stock Market1,5740.14 %May 13

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