Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

September 1, 2020

GDP plunged in the second quarter, contracting for the first time in over seven years as the pandemic hammered activity. The domestic economy led the downturn, as household spending was scaled back amid heightened economic uncertainty and social distancing recommendations. Exports also suffered as lockdowns and tumbling demand in key international markets hit the external sector. Turning to the third quarter, signals indicate a recovery is underway: PMIs for both the manufacturing and services sectors were in expansionary territory in July, while business and consumer confidence in the same month were much improved from April’s nadir. Meanwhile, all schools reopened in mid-August and retail and recreation activity was close to pre-pandemic levels at the end of the month, boding well for consumer spending.

Sweden Economic Growth

The economy is set to contract sharply this year as the combined effects of dwindling private consumption and faltering fixed investment dent domestic activity. Although significant fiscal and monetary policy stimulus should soften the downturn, the frail state of key export markets and the prolonged nature of the pandemic darken the outlook significantly. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 4.6% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 3.8% in 2021.

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Sweden Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.15-4.79 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate9.36-0.20 %Jan 01

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