Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

April 30, 2018

The economy likely slowed in the first quarter from its strong showing at the end of last year. The average PMI and economic sentiment readings over the quarter both fell from their Q4 average, but overall remained healthy. Industrial production also fell in February. On the other hand, the further depreciation of the krona throughout the quarter provided support to an external sector already buoyed by robust demand growth in Europe. Signs for Q2 are, meanwhile, positive: Economic sentiment rebounded in April, and the strong momentum of the labor market in Q1 looks poised to continue, particularly in the service sector. However, a further correction in the housing market could dampen private consumption.

Sweden Economic Growth

Growth should remain solid in the coming year, as the strong global dynamics boosts exports. A tight labor market should support healthy wage growth, while a more expansionary fiscal stance is expected to further buttress economic activity. The main downside risk in the short-term is the weak housing market, which is likely to slide further this year. This would hurt fixed investment growth as the construction sector cools down, and reduce spending by households, which have a high level of mortgage debt. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 2.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2019.

Sweden Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.69.79.910.010.2
GDP per capita (USD)60,01158,82750,33151,135-  
GDP (USD bn)579573496511-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.22.74.13.2-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.12.72.4-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.65.57.05.3-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)-0.85.35.63.5-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-0.16.35.53.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.1-2.22.51.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.63.35.02.9-  
Unemployment Rate8.07.97.47.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-1.50.30.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.445.243.941.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.75.68.26.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.1-0.30.11.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-0.20.01.0-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.81.40.0-0.9-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.0-0.35-0.50-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)20.79.9-1.24.9-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)8.659.109.369.47-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)8.859.439.179.58-  
Current Account (% of GDP)5.34.64.74.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)30.526.623.323.0-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)18.617.413.511.4-  

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Sweden Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.70-4.79 %May 21
Exchange Rate8.67-0.20 %May 21
Stock Market1,6260.14 %May 21

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