Sweden Economic Forecast

Sweden Economic Outlook

March 3, 2020

The economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year, as fixed investment tumbled amid lower business confidence and despite ultra-low interest rates. Moreover, government consumption growth stalled in Q4, after accelerating in Q3, and exports fell at a faster pace than imports, leading the external sector to drag on the headline reading. More positively, private consumption growth firmed up slightly, despite the unemployment rate rising to an over three-and-a-half-year high in December. Turning to this year, the outlook looks mixed. On the one hand, economic sentiment rose to a nine-month high in February, primarily due to greater consumer confidence, and the jobless rate was unchanged in January, pausing a steady run of increases. On the other hand, the recent spread of coronavirus within Sweden and abroad could dampen economic activity towards the end of this quarter and further into the year.

Sweden Economic Growth

Growth should remain subdued this year due to sluggish exports, a sagging construction sector and an expected increase in the unemployment rate. However, low interest rates and fiscal stimulus should support growth. A key risk to the outlook is the development of the coronavirus outbreak. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 1.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.6% in 2021.

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Sweden Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.15-4.79 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate9.36-0.20 %Jan 01

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