Slovenia GDP Q4 2019


Slovenia: GDP grows at slowest pace in over six years in Q4 2019

February 28, 2020

The economy grew 1.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, down from the third quarter’s 2.4% and the weakest expansion since Q3 2013, according to detailed data released by Slovenia’s Statistical Institute on 28 February. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP growth halved to 0.4% from 0.8% in the third quarter. Taking the year as a whole, the economy grew 2.4% in 2019, down from 4.1% in 2018.

Domestic demand nearly stagnated in the fourth quarter, as fixed investment shrank at the sharpest rate in more than three years amid deteriorating business confidence (Q4: -4.5% year-on-year; Q3: +2.2% yoy). Moreover, government consumption contracted 2.0% in Q4 (Q3: +3.4% yoy), while household spending grew at the slowest rate since Q1 2015 (Q4: +1.2% yoy; Q3: +3.2%) against the backdrop of lackluster consumer confidence.

On the upside, the external sector contributed 1.3 percentage points to overall growth in Q4, after subtracting 1.0 percentage points from growth in Q3. This chiefly reflected a downturn in imports (Q4: -0.8% yoy; Q3: +7.4% yoy), which was prompted by falling domestic demand. Export growth, meanwhile, slowed to a seven-year low in Q4 as foreign sales of both goods and services lost steam.

The Central Bank expects GDP to grow 2.5% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2021. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists, meanwhile, sees the economy growing 2.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2021.

Author:, Economist

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