Slovakia: GDP growth moderates in Q3 after H1's downw
November 15, 2022
After a downward revision over H1, flash GDP data shows that year-on-year growth moderated slightly in Q3, coming in at 1.2% (Q2: 1.3%). According to the press release, domestic demand was the main growth driver. Moreover, the breakdown due on 6 December is likely to show improvements in the all-important motor vehicle industry. Increasing inflow of EU funds should have supported investment. That said, the full release is also likely to show that contracting retail sales were a drag on private consumption, amid double-digit inflation.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, growth remained stable at 0.3%.
Giving their below-Consensus view on the 2023 outlook, EIU analysts said:
“EIU does not expect real GDP to rebound to 2019 levels until late 2023. High inflation and weak external demand from Europe mean that the Slovak economy is likely to contract by 0.4% in 2023. Even if Slovakia holds enough gas reserves to sufficiently cover consumption, high energy costs will deteriorate industrial competitiveness.”
Author: StStefan Poseafan, Junior Economist