Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

September 26, 2017

Slovakia continues to be one of the fastest growing economies in the Eurozone. Earlier this month, the preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP was confirmed at 3.3% growth annually. As expected, the print, an improvement over Q1’s 3.1% rise, was led by an increase in private consumption, which has benefitted from a strong labor market. On the downside, growth in exports tumbled due to a slowdown in the auto industry—one of the key drivers of economic growth—as worker shortages persist amid record low levels of unemployment. Despite bottlenecks in the car manufacturing sector, business confidence climbed into positive territory following two consecutive months of decreases. Consumer confidence also showed slight improvement, rising to the highest level since December of last year, albeit remaining in pessimistic territory.

Slovakia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,45413,70714,02314,51514,920
GDP (EUR bn)72.774.275.978.781.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.71.52.63.83.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-0.81.42.22.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.0-0.91.216.9-9.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.03.93.67.44.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.90.13.61.72.1
Unemployment Rate14.014.213.211.59.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-2.7-2.7-2.7-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)52.254.753.652.551.9
Money (annual variation in %)7.36.25.211.15.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.20.4-0.1-0.50.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.81.5-0.1-0.3-0.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.9-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.01.91.00.2-0.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.71.40.90.1-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.52.92.82.02.3
Exports (EUR billion)60.262.462.666.168.3
Imports (EUR billion)57.759.559.864.166.0
Exports (annual variation in %)10.03.70.35.63.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.43.20.57.13.0

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.19-12.73 %Oct 16
Exchange Rate1.18-0.32 %Oct 16
Stock Market310-0.84 %Oct 16

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Slovakia Economic Growth

September 26, 2017

Resilient growth in EU trading partners should buoy exports and keep the economy on a solid trajectory this year and next. However, the downward trend in working-age population suggests growing pressures on the labor supply going forward and poses a downside risk to long-term growth potential. Our panelists project GDP will expand 3.2% in 2017, and expect growth to accelerate to 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Slovakia Economic News

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