Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

A second reading of national accounts data confirmed buoyant growth in Q2, with sharp increases in all GDP components. The upbeat economic performance was partly due to a low base effect, but was also grounded in the gradual easing of restrictions abroad, which boosted the external sector, and of those domestically, which set the stage for a resurgence in demand at home. Looking at Q3, economic momentum has slowed somewhat. Retail sales growth moderated in July amid deeply negative consumer sentiment, while business confidence fell in July–August, pointing towards the negative effect of the relatively slow vaccination rate on domestic activity. Meanwhile, export growth dropped to a five-month low in July amid ongoing semiconductor shortages. That said, substantial EU recovery funds should support activity heading into the final quarter of the year.

Slovakia Economic Growth

The economy should grow strongly in 2021 and 2022, as resurgent external demand couples with a strengthening of domestic consumer activity. EU funds—over 6.0% of GDP during 2021–26—should further buttress the recovery. However, disagreements among leading members of the governing coalition could potentially impede economic policymaking, posing a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 4.2% in 2021. In 2022, the panel sees GDP growth at 4.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Slovakia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)14,71314,93515,55116,48417,276
GDP (EUR bn)79.881.084.589.794.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)21.6-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate11.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.5-1.0-1.0-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.952.051.349.448.0
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.3-
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.3-
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-2.1-2.1-2.4-2.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-1.8-1.7-2.3-2.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-
Exports (EUR billion)62.667.271.576.477.9
Imports (EUR billion)63.865.570.876.478.6
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)

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Slovakia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.13-4.12 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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