Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

February 26, 2019

A preliminary estimate suggests growth decelerated in the fourth quarter, likely reflecting the deteriorating European backdrop. Industrial production slowed amid the wider regional downturn, bruising export growth in the quarter. Domestic demand, however, appeared upbeat in Q4 as lower inflation and a tight labor market propelled retail sales. Meanwhile, business confidence within the industrial sector dipped into negative territory in January, even though new orders in the all-important automotive industry should cushion any further pullback in industrial production over the coming months. In other news, Donald Trump struck fear into European carmakers on 20 February by threatening to impose import tariffs on cars. The move would deal a big blow to the Slovak industrial sector, as it is deeply linked to the European supply chain.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Looking ahead, growth should moderate on a broad-based deceleration across the Eurozone, which will hurt the export-oriented economy. Fixed investment is expected to fall on the heels of a bumper year. That said, growth is still seen outpacing most of its Eurozone peers in the short-run amid all-time low unemployment and easing inflation. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.7% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.45-4.12 %Mar 20
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Mar 20
Stock Market3430.0 %Mar 20

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