Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

December 20, 2019

Economic growth slowed to a near six-year low in the third quarter, on the heels of the second quarter’s moderation. Both public expenditure and private consumption decelerated in Q3, while exports shriveled again amid gloomy dynamics in the EU. Fixed investment, however, jumped, thus cushioning the overall moderation. Heading into the fourth quarter, available data hints at lingering economic weakness. Industrial production contracted for the third straight month in October as weak external demand continued to hamper the automotive sector, while sentiment in the industrial sector remained downbeat in October–November. Moreover, retail sales shrank and wage growth slowed sharply in October, while consumer confidence fell to an over three-year low in November, suggesting faltering household spending in the final months of the year.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Growth should remain broadly stable next year, supported by resilient private consumption amid a tight labor market. The key risks to the outlook are weak foreign demand–as consumers move away from diesel-powered vehicles–and the renewed U.S. tariffs threats. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 2.5% in 2020, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2021.

Slovakia Economy Data

20142015201620172018
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,59814,97015,612
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.179.181.284.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.84.23.13.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.93.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.021.9-9.43.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.53.26.64.73.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.6-2.2-0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.251.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-4.38.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-2.1-2.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.8-1.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.92.92.81.60.7
Exports (EUR billion)62.462.462.667.271.5
Imports (EUR billion)59.559.559.865.570.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.70.00.37.36.4
Imports (annual variation in %)3.20.00.59.58.0

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.13-4.12 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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