Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

According to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute, growth moderated somewhat in Q3, but remained solid overall. Although a complete breakdown by component is not yet available, data on retail sales throughout the quarter suggests household spending was again the driver of growth. Rising wages, a tight labor market and stronger consumer confidence have been supportive of private consumption. Moreover, external demand continued to expand solidly in the quarter. Imports nevertheless outpaced exports, because of growing fixed investment, narrowing the trade surplus. Although the 2016 fiscal deficit was revised upwards, fiscal parameters are relatively solid, and the government is committed to further narrowing the fiscal shortfall. Leading indicators suggest economic activity should continue to expand healthily in Q4: Although consumer confidence lost some ground in October, confidence in the industrial, construction and trade services improved.

Slovakia Economic Growth

The economy is set to record another year of robust growth in 2018, underpinned by strong external demand, solid private consumption and a pick-up in investment spending on the back of higher EU funds inflows. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP will expand 3.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.4% in 2019.

Slovakia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,45413,70714,02314,51514,920
GDP (EUR bn)72.774.275.978.781.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.71.52.63.83.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-0.81.42.22.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.0-0.91.216.9-9.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.03.93.67.44.7
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.90.13.61.72.1
Unemployment Rate14.014.213.211.59.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-2.7-2.7-2.7-1.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)52.254.753.652.551.9
Money (annual variation in %)7.36.25.211.15.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.20.4-0.1-0.50.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.81.5-0.1-0.3-0.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.9-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)1.01.91.00.2-0.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.71.40.90.1-0.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)2.52.92.82.02.3
Exports (EUR billion)60.262.462.666.168.3
Imports (EUR billion)57.759.559.864.166.0
Exports (annual variation in %)10.03.70.35.63.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.43.20.57.13.0

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.10-4.12 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market3210.0 %Dec 06

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