Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

December 23, 2021

After a significantly softer GDP expansion in Q3, Q4 growth has likely been constrained by a surge in Covid-19 infections and the arrival of the Omicron variant. New restrictions were introduced in October and a lockdown was implemented in November, although restrictions on vaccinated citizens were eased somewhat in December. Looking at key indicators, retail sales growth fell in October, while consumer confidence declined through November. Expanding the country’s meager vaccination rate is vital for the recovery to gain pace. While recent progress has been slow, ongoing restrictions on non-vaccinated people and the recent move to offer cash handouts for seniors in return for their vaccination will likely provide a boost ahead. On a more positive note, October data indicated improved industrial and export momentum, suggesting a slight easing of semiconductor shortages.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Growth should pick up somewhat next year as vaccination coverage expands, boosting spending. Loose monetary policy and hefty EU funds should further aid the recovery. Nonetheless, the Omicron variant, disagreements within the governing coalition and a prolongation of supply bottlenecks pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 4.3% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees GDP growth at 4.1%.

Slovakia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.5
GDP per capita (EUR)14,71314,93515,55116,48417,276
GDP (EUR bn)79.881.084.589.794.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.82.13.04.02.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.83.94.43.92.5
Investment (annual variation in %)21.6-9.33.93.75.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.74.63.34.30.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.72.16.03.7-1.3
Unemployment Rate11.59.78.16.55.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.5-1.0-1.0-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.952.051.349.448.0
Money (annual variation in %)11.15.26.26.58.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.21.91.93.0
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.51.42.52.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.3-4.31.95.02.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.7-2.1-2.1-2.4-2.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-1.8-1.7-2.3-2.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.21.60.70.0-0.7
Exports (EUR billion)62.667.271.576.477.9
Imports (EUR billion)63.865.570.876.478.6
Exports (annual variation in %)0.37.36.46.91.9
Imports (annual variation in %)6.62.78.07.93.0

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Slovakia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.13-4.12 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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