Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

A preliminary estimate for economic activity confirmed growth marginally picked up in the first quarter. Notably, industrial production reported the strongest quarterly showing in over three years, owing to robust output in the all-important automotive sector. In turn, merchandise export growth accelerated in Q1, hinting that net trade supported the overall expansion. On the other hand, expenditure side activity appears to have softened in the quarter. Flagging retail sales, against the backdrop of lower consumer sentiment and higher inflation, suggest that households may have postponed purchases. Moreover, fixed investment likely moderated, as evidenced by deteriorating business sentiment and falling construction activity in Q1. Turning to Q2, household spending is expected to improve somewhat, underpinned by easing price pressures and improved consumer sentiment.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Slovakia’s economy is seen cooling somewhat this year, as the completion of projects in the vital automotive sector weighs on fixed investment. Nevertheless, resilient private consumption should cushion the downturn, while higher industrial output is expected to buttress export growth despite the fragile backdrop in Europe’s largest economies. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.09-4.12 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market3450.0 %Jun 13

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