Slovakia Economic Forecast

Slovakia Economic Outlook

December 20, 2018

GDP growth rose marginally in the third quarter, as an improvement in consumer sentiment, strong wage growth and continued job gains buttressed consumer spending. However, fixed investment contracted, following a surge in the previous quarter, likely due to cooling business confidence and rising interest rates. According to available indicators, the economy is set to record another quarter of healthy, albeit softer expansion in Q4, again supported by strong private consumption: Retail sales soared and the labor market remained tight in October, while consumers became much less pessimistic in October-November. On the production side, industrial output gained speed in October, while construction continued to surge in the month. In its latest report on the stability of the financial sector, released in early December, the Central Bank suggested that it may further increase the countercyclical capital buffer for banks next year in order to restrain credit growth and prevent economic overheating.

Slovakia Economic Growth

Growth should remain vibrant next year. Tighter labor market conditions, moderate inflation, a healthy inflow of immigrant workers, and solid wage gains are expected to bolster consumer spending. Moreover, with additional production coming from new car factories, industrial output is expected to expand strongly, contributing to a rise in exports. Further brightening picture, a responsible fiscal stance should translate into another fall in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP will expand 3.8% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.

Slovakia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)5.45.45.45.45.4
GDP per capita (EUR)13,70714,04914,55414,95715,648
GDP (EUR bn)74.276.178.981.285.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.52.83.93.33.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.81.42.32.63.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.93.019.8-8.33.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.23.06.03.83.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.13.61.72.16.0
Unemployment Rate14.213.211.59.78.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.2-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.753.552.351.850.9
Money (annual variation in %)6.25.211.15.26.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.4-0.1-0.50.21.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.5-0.1-0.3-0.51.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.1-3.5-4.3-0.28.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.250.050.050.00.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.381.211.091.051.20
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.331.111.111.13
Current Account (% of GDP)1.91.0-1.7-1.4-2.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.40.9-1.4-1.2-1.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.24.73.33.63.2
Exports (EUR billion)64.264.767.770.075.1
Imports (EUR billion)59.960.064.466.471.9
Exports (annual variation in %)3.30.94.63.57.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.30.17.23.18.3

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Slovakia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.62-4.12 %Jan 16
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 16
Stock Market3370.0 %Jan 16

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