Russia Inflation September 2023

Russia: Inflation comes in at highest level since February in September

Inflation rose to 6.0% in September, following August’s 5.1%. September’s figure marked the highest inflation rate since February. The upturn was broad-based: Inflation for food goods, non-food goods and services accelerated at the end of Q3. FX-passthrough was likely the main driver behind the overall upturn.

Annual average inflation fell to 7.0% in September (August: 7.6%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 4.6% in September, from the previous month’s 4.0%.

Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.87% in September over the previous month, picking up from August’s 0.28% increase. September’s uptick was the highest reading since April 2022.

The breadth of acceleration in September suggests that price pressures have again become widespread across basket components. Inflation will likely rise further by year-end and remain well above the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% in 2024. All eyes are now on the Bank, which could opt for another rate hike by the end of the year to tame price pressures. Geopolitics, ruble strength and public finances are key factors to watch going forward.

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