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Russia: Industrial production surges in December

January 26, 2015

In December, industrial production improved notably as it increased 3.9% over the same month of the previous year. The reading contrasted the 0.4% contraction registered in November and came in well above the 0.8% rise the markets had expected. December’s result, which represented the fastest increase in 28 months, reflected a broad-based improvement. Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in in December and growth in mining and quarrying accelerated at the fastest pace since February 2012.

Sequential data confirm the improvement suggested by the annual data. Industrial production increased a seasonally-adjusted 2.1% over the previous month in December, which contrasted the 1.1% decrease registered in November. Some analysts attributed December’s surge to one-off factors, like the production of durable consumer goods, which expanded around 45%. This reflected households’ temporary buying spree related to rising inflation.

In the full year 2014, industrial production in Russia grew 1.6%, which was up the 0.4% rise observed in 2013.

Prospects for industrial production in Russia are grim. FocusEconomics participants expect industrial production to increase only 0.1% in 2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points, from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 1.8% in 2016.


Author:, Senior Economist

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Russia Industry December 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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