Russia GDP Q3 2018


Russia: Growth slows sharply in Q3

November 13, 2018

A preliminary estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 11 November revealed that the economic recovery lost steam in the third quarter, following a sharp acceleration in the second quarter. GDP rose 1.3% over the same quarter last year, which was notably below Q2’s 1.9% expansion and below market expectations of a 1.4% increase.

Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, poor agricultural output is likely to have weighed on the result, largely owing to unfavorable weather and a late harvest. In addition, cooler consumption dynamics also likely played a role: Consumer sentiment plunged in Q3 in the aftermath of the government’s unpopular hike in the retirement age, and imports contracted for the first time in over two years in August—likely signaling weak domestic demand.

A comprehensive estimate of national accounts will be released in December.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that Russia’s GDP will increase 1.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Panelists expect the economy will expand 1.9% in 2020.


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Russia GDP Chart

Russia GDP Q3  2018

Note: Year-on-year changes in GDP in %.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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