Russia

Russia Economy

Russia economic overview

Eastern Europe's powerhouse:

Russia is by far the largest and most populous economy in Eastern Europe, and has close trade ties with many members of the former Soviet bloc. Until the war in Ukraine, it was also a key provider of energy to the EU, though energy flows to the bloc have plummeted since 2022.

Energy superpower:

Russia's economy is heavily reliant on its vast natural resources, particularly in energy. It is one of the world's largest producers of oil and natural gas, which are major contributors to its GDP and export earnings. This reliance makes its economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices.

A global granary:

Agriculture in Russia benefits from vast land resources, with significant production of wheat, barley, and other grains. The sector has seen growth and modernization in recent years, although it is hindered by sometimes adverse climatic conditions and infrastructure limitations.

Dismal demographics:

Russia's population has been falling since 2018 amid a low birth rate and limited attractiveness to expats, with the decline accelerating since the outset of the Ukraine war. The population is expected to continue to decline until at least 2028.

War-related disruption:

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, ties with the West—already hurt by Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014—have deteriorated, and Russia has been hit by Western sanctions. Moreover, the war has disrupted economic activity, led to the withdrawal of foreign firms and caused a decline in the population due to high casualties and men fleeing conscription. However, the Russian economy has weathered Western sanctions much better than initially expected, thanks to high energy prices and the nation's ability to find new buyers for its exports, particularly in Asia.

Russia's economic outlook:

Economic prospects are fairly grim due to international isolation, corruption and weak demographics. Growth is seen averaging only slightly above 1% out to 2028, well below the Commonwealth of Independent States' average.

Russia's economy in numbers:

Nominal GDP of USD 2,193 billion in 2022.

GDP per capita of USD 15,287 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 1.1% over the last decade.

Share of the region's population
Share of the region's GDP

Economic structure:

In 2021, services accounted for 63% of overall GDP, manufacturing 14%, other industrial activity 19%, and agriculture 4%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 50% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 18%, fixed investment 22%, and net exports 10%.

GDP by economic sector
GDP by type of expenditure

International trade:

In 2020, manufactured products made up 21% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 42%, food 8%, ores and metals 9% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other categories accounting for 18% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 79% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 1%, food 12%, ores and metals 3% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 4% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 592 billion in 2022, while total imports were USD 277 billion.

Key exports
Key imports
Key export partners
Key import partners

Economic growth:

The economy recorded average annual growth of 1.1% in the decade to 2022. To read more about GDP growth in Russia, go to our dedicated page.

Fiscal policy:

Russia's fiscal deficit averaged 0.8% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.

Unemployment:

The unemployment rate averaged 5.1% in the decade to 2022. For more information on Russia's unemployment click here.

Inflation:

Inflation averaged 7.0% in the decade to 2022. Go to our Russia inflation page for extra insight.

Monetary Policy:

Russia's monetary policy rate ended 2022 at 7.50%, up from 5.50% a decade earlier. See our Russia monetary policy page for additional details.

Exchange Rate:

From end-2012 to end-2022 the ruble weakened by 58.2% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the ruble, click here.
Economic activity growth averaged 4.8% year on year in October–November, suggesting GDP cooled in Q4 after it expanded 5.5% in Q3. Industrial output growth weakened in Q4 on a softer manufacturing sector increase and shrinking mining activity. That said, retail sales accelerated in October–November compared to Q3, thanks to a record-low unemployment rate. This suggests that consumer spending remained upbeat in Q4 despite soaring consumer prices and notably higher interest rates. Moreover, a move to a war economy, amid a huge boost to defense spending, further supported activity in Q4. Turning to 2024, the manufacturing PMI slumped to a six-month low in January, suggesting growth is likely cooling in Q1, chiefly due to notably tighter monetary policy and less accommodative fiscal policy. That said, the booming military-industrial sector should be keeping growth relatively healthy in Q1.
Projections out to 2033.

52 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.

Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 35 expert analysts.

Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Russia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2033 on 52 economic indicators for Russia from a panel of 35 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Russia economy. To download a sample report on the Russia's economy, click here . To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page .

Russia Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 147 147 146 146 143
GDP (USD bn) 1,654 1,694 1,489 1,835 2,193
GDP per capita (USD) 11,267 11,543 10,183 12,610 15,287
GDP (EUR bn) 1,402 1,513 1,306 1,553 2,086
GDP per capita (EUR) 9,549 10,312 8,933 10,667 14,544
GDP (RUB bn) 103,862 109,608 107,658 135,774 155,350
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 13.1 5.5 -1.8 26.1 14.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.8 2.2 -2.7 5.6 -2.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.1 3.1 -4.0 9.5 -1.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.3 3.8 -5.9 10.0 -1.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.3 2.4 1.9 2.9 2.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.6 1.0 -4.0 9.1 3.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.6 0.7 -4.2 3.3 -13.9
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.7 3.1 -11.9 19.1 -15.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.5 3.4 -2.1 6.3 0.9
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.8 1.9 -3.2 8.8 -6.0
Wages (ann. var. %) 7.0 2.7 2.4 2.8 -1.1
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.3 3.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.8 4.6 5.8 4.8 3.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 2.6 1.8 -3.8 0.4 -2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 13.6 13.7 19.2 16.5 18.9
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 11.0 9.7 13.5 13.0 24.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 4.3 3.0 4.9 8.4 11.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.9 4.5 3.4 6.7 13.8
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.9 3.2 -3.4 24.6 12.1
Key Rate (%, eop) 7.75 6.25 4.25 8.50 7.50
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 8.73 6.23 5.91 8.42 10.36
Stock Market (ann. var. of MICEX %) -7.6 45.3 -10.4 15.0 -39.2
Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, eop) 69.37 62.11 73.96 75.01 73.00
Exchange Rate (RUB per USD, aop) 62.80 64.71 72.33 73.71 69.97
Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, eop) 79.30 69.72 90.50 85.30 77.91
Exchange Rate (RUB per EUR, aop) 74.10 72.43 82.45 87.13 73.55
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 115.7 65.7 35.4 122.1 238.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.0 3.9 2.4 6.7 10.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 195.1 165.8 93.4 190.3 315.6
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 444 420 334 494 592
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 249 254 240 304 277
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 25.8 -5.4 -20.5 48.2 19.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 4.4 2.0 -5.4 26.6 -9.0
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 13.2 32.1 10.4 38.6 -18.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 468 554 596 631 582
International Reserves (months of imports) 22.6 26.2 29.8 24.9 25.3
External Debt (USD bn) 455 491 468 482 384
External Debt (% of GDP) 27.5 29.0 31.4 26.3 17.5

Q&A:

  1. How is Russia's economy doing?

  2. Russia's economy contracted significantly following the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent imposition of Western sanctions. The sanctions have impacted Russia's energy exports, financial sector, and access to technology. That said, economic activity has since recovered.

  3. What is the outlook for the Russian economy?

  4. The Russian economy faces an uncertain future, influenced by deteriorating population dynamics, sanctions, the Ukraine war, and global economic conditions. Modest growth is expected in the near term, but risks abound; tighter sanctions or escalating conflict could lead to renewed economic contraction.

  5. How big is the Russian economy?

  6. As of 2023, Russia's economy is forecast to be among the largest in the world by nominal GDP, with a value of approximately USD 1.9 trillion. Russia remains a significant economic power with a strong resource base and a diversified economy. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine and Western sanctions will weigh on GDP growth ahead.

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