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Romania Inflation July 2021

Romania: Inflation hits near three-year high in July

Consumer prices rose 0.97% in July over the previous month, following the 0.27% increase recorded in June. July’s reading was the sharpest increase in prices since January. The result largely reflected rising prices for non-food goods.

Inflation came in at 5.0% in July, which was up from June’s 3.9%. July’s result was the highest inflation rate since September 2018. Accordingly, the trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 3.1% in July (June: 2.9%). Lastly, core inflation rose to 4.3% in July, from June’s 3.3%.

Commenting on July’s spike, Ciprian Dascalu, analyst at Erste Bank, expects the Central Bank to start tightening its monetary policy in turn:

“Given the NBR inflation forecast profile, we see first 25bp rate hike to 1.50% at 9 November meeting. […] Depending on progress on the fiscal consolidation front and ‘the budget consolidation strategy presumed to be prepared by this autumn, in line with European institutions’ recommendations’ which is cited by the NBR as a source of uncertainty, another 25-50bp of rate hikes could follow in 2022.”

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