Romania Inflation July 2022

Romania

Romania: Inflation falls in July

August 11, 2022

Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.89% over the previous month in July, accelerating from the 0.76% rise seen in June. The increase was broad-based across the key sub-components, with prices for food, services and non-food items all rising sharply.

In year-on-year terms, inflation ticked down to 15.0% in July, which followed June’s 15.1%. Annual average inflation rose to 10.1% in July (June: 9.2%).

On the outlook for inflation, ING analysts noted:



“[…] our view is that the overall inflationary trend seems to have peaked and that we should embark on a gradually descending path from October. Our 13.0% estimate for average 2022 inflation looks on track and we believe that the year-end number could come in lower than the National Bank of Romania's 13.9% estimate. […] inflation should continue to descend and is set to reach the NBR’s mid-point of its 1.5%-4.5% target range by June 2024.”

Our panelists see inflation averaging 12.1% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in 2023.


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