Portugal Economic Sentiment January 2018

Portugal

Portugal: Consumer confidence bounces back, while economic sentiment stabilizes in January

January 30, 2018

According to the recent survey of consumer sentiment released by the National Statistical Institute (INE) on 30 January, consumer confidence regained some ground in January. The indicator rose back to November’s print of 1.7 points, after it dropped to 0.7 points in December. Thus, it moved further up from the critical zero-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. Consumers’ improved perceptions on the general economic situation over the next 12 months and greater optimism on their ability to save over the same period were behind the upturn in overall sentiment. On the flip side, consumers were less optimistic regarding their personal financial situation over the coming year and views over unemployment also marginally deteriorated.

The overall economic climate indicator steadied in January at 1.9 points after dropping in December to this level—the lowest reading in seven months. Economic sentiment in the manufacturing sector deteriorated over less optimistic expectations on production over the next three months and stocks of finished goods. Moreover, the trade sector saw a slight fade in optimism due to marginally less favorable perceptions about wholesale trade. Conversely, business sentiment was more upbeat in the services sector thanks to a brighter outlook on the general business situation and order books over the next three months. Economic sentiment regarding the construction and public works sector also improved by some degree, due to less pessimistic views on current order books and employment in the upcoming three months, but still remained firmly entrenched in pessimistic territory, where it has been for months now.

FocusEconomics panelists expect fixed investment to increase 3.8% in 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2019. Panelists expect private consumption to grow 2.0% in 2018, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2019.


Author:, Economist

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Portugal Economic Sentiment January 2018

Note: Consumer Confidence and Economic Climate indicators.
Source: Statistics Portugal (INE).


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