Poland GDP Q4 2019


Poland: Growth slumps to three-year low in Q4

February 14, 2020

The economy grew 3.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter (Q3: +3.9% year-on-year), marking the weakest expansion since Q4 2016, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (GUS) on 14 February. The outturn matched FocusEconomics analysts’ expectations. Ahead of comprehensive fourth-quarter national accounts on 29 February, it appears faltering industrial production, amid plunging business confidence and the protracted downturn in the German industrial sector, most likely restrained investment activity. Moreover, household spending seemingly moderated somewhat, on downbeat consumer sentiment; nevertheless, it likely remained solid overall as evidenced by resilient retail sales growth in the quarter supported by a tight labor market and still-healthy wage growth.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth plunged to 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms from Q3’s 1.2% expansion, marking the softest increase since Q1 2016.

Growth is set to moderate further this year, as external uncertainties will restrain exports and weigh on investment activity. That said, the economy should continue to expand at a healthy pace, underpinned by resilient household spending amid the tight labor market, tax cuts, higher pensions and wage hikes. Weakness in the EU and potential global supply chain disruptions cloud the outlook.

FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 3.4% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2021.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Poland GDP Chart

Poland GDP Q4  2019

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Central Statistical Office (GUS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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