Poland: GDP growth ticks down in year-on-year terms in Q1
According to a flash release, GDP growth came in at -0.2% year on year (yoy) in Q1, down from the 2.3% increase recorded in Q4 and largely due to a high base of comparison. In fact, GDP jumped 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, swinging from the previous quarter’s 2.3% contraction.
Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, monthly data suggests that beyond the base effect, the year-on-year cooling was due to declining household spending—amid downbeat sentiment and high inflation—and a negative contribution from destocking.
A detailed breakdown is set to be released on 31 May.
Commenting on the outlook, Rafal Benecki, Poland chief economist at ING, stated:
“Our baseline scenario assumes that the first quarter was a turning point, and subsequent quarters will bring an upturn, albeit a moderate one. We expect a more pronounced rebound only in the fourth quarter of the year. A key prerequisite for a rebound is a further decline in inflation and a recovery in consumer purchasing power […].”