Poland GDP Q2 2022

Poland

Poland: GDP growth cools in Q2

September 1, 2022

GDP growth decelerated to 5.5% year on year (yoy) in the second quarter, from 8.5% in Q1. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP shrank 2.1% in Q2, swinging from the previous quarter's 2.5% expansion.

The deterioration in the yoy print was spearheaded by domestic demand. Private consumption growth slowed to 6.4% year on year in Q2, from a 6.6% expansion in Q1, but remained robust nonetheless amid accumulated savings. Fixed investment growth came in at 7.1% for the quarter (Q1: +4.3% yoy). This came despite a considerably lower contribution from stock accumulation, which followed a Q1 marked by a significant increase in inventories amid global supply shortages Meanwhile, public consumption growth accelerated to 0.8% (Q1: +0.6% yoy).

On the external front, growth in exports of goods and services gained speed and came in at 5.2% yoy in Q2 (Q1: +2.0% yoy). Meanwhile, growth in imports of goods and services softened to 7.8% yoy in Q2 (Q1: +8.8% yoy), marking the slowest reading since Q3 2020. That said, the external sector deducted 1.2 percentage points from the headline reading, as it weighed on the economy for the fourth consecutive quarter.

FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to expand 4.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2023, our panelists see growth at 4.1%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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